311_Session15

311_Session15 - OperationsManagement Session15:Forecasting

Info iconThis preview shows pages 1–12. Sign up to view the full content.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
Operations Management Session 15:  Forecasting
Background image of page 1

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon
 Session 15 Operations Management 2 Forecasting Objectives Introduce the basic concepts of forecasting and its  importance within an organization. Identify several of the more common forecasting  methods  Measure and assess the errors that exist in all  forecasts
Background image of page 2
 Session 15 Operations Management 3 Managerial Issues Recognizing the increased importance of  forecasting in both manufacturing and services. How to go about implementing forecasting at all  levels in the organization. Why do we care?  Planning How many T-shirts to stock. How much staff to hire in, for example, a call center.
Background image of page 3

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon
 Session 15 Operations Management 4 Types of Forecasting Qualitative Techniques Non-quantitative forecasting techniques based on expert opinions  and intuition. Typically used when there are no data available. Time Series Analysis Analyzing data by time periods to determine if trends or patterns  occur. Causal Relationship Forecasting Relating demand to an underlying factor other than time.  (Regression)  (Number of socks sold depends on number of running  shoes sold.)
Background image of page 4
 Session 15 Operations Management 5 Qualitative Techniques Subjective, judgmental Based on intuition, estimates, and opinions Expert Opinions Market Research Historical Analogies
Background image of page 5

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon
 Session 15 Operations Management 6 Time Series Methods Moving average Exponential smoothing More sophisticated techniques available
Background image of page 6
 Session 15 Operations Management 7 Causal Relationship Multiple Regression Models Assumed learned in your statistics class, so we will not  discuss.
Background image of page 7

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon
 Session 15 Operations Management 8 Characteristic of Forecasts They are usually wrong.  (Election polls this year.) The longer the forecast horizon, the less accurate  the forecast will be. Group forecasts are more accurate than individual  forecasts. A good forecast says something about its likely  error size.
Background image of page 8
 Session 15 Operations Management 9 Time Series Models Models for short term decisions Inventory decisions Stock levels of Gameboys Production planning decisions Staffing decisions Call center scheduling Fast food chain
Background image of page 9

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon
 Session 15 Operations Management 10 Components of Demand Average Demand for the Period Trends (Growing company likely has increasing  demand.) Seasonal/Cyclical Influence  (More umbrellas sold  in winter than in summer.) Random Variation
Background image of page 10
 Session 15 Operations Management 11 Moving Average Appropriate when demand for a product is neither 
Background image of page 11

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon
Image of page 12
This is the end of the preview. Sign up to access the rest of the document.

This note was uploaded on 03/02/2010 for the course BUAD OPERATIONS taught by Professor Srinivasan during the Fall '08 term at USC.

Page1 / 46

311_Session15 - OperationsManagement Session15:Forecasting

This preview shows document pages 1 - 12. Sign up to view the full document.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
Ask a homework question - tutors are online