Lecture%20#6%20notes%20Geol%203950%202010%20CR%20Stern

Lecture%20#6%20notes%20Geol%203950%202010%20CR%20Stern -...

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Lecture #6; Geology 3950 Spring 2010; CR Stern Predicting earthquakes A valid testable prediction of an earthquake needs to specify the following four items: 1) When it will occur (in what window of time; a date +/- a number of days, weeks or years) 2) Where it will occur (in what window of space, usually a specific fault segment of a plate boundary) 3) What will be the magnitude M (which relates back to the size of the segment which is predicted to rupture) 4) What is the probability it will occur (some % over the time window) Real predictions are like weather forecasts, and are more or less probable, but never 100% certain. Real predictions are evaluated by the US Geological Survey for validity before being released to local authorities, since false alarms cause panic and loss of faith in future predictions. When you hear about an earthquake prediction, make sure it is USGS certified! The news media does not care about the validity of predictions. Short-term predictions depend on identification of some precursor event to a quake,
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This note was uploaded on 03/02/2010 for the course GEOL 3950 taught by Professor Charles during the Spring '08 term at Colorado.

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Lecture%20#6%20notes%20Geol%203950%202010%20CR%20Stern -...

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