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9702 管理學覆誦&egrave

9702 管理學覆誦è

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Unformatted text preview: Management Chapter 6 Decision-Making: The Essence of the Manager's Job [email protected] Outlines The Decision-Making Process Define decision and decision-making process. Describe the eight steps in the decisionmaking process. 8M The Manager as Decision Maker X 5 2 Decision Making Decision M Making a choice from two or more alternatives. ` " A The Decision-Making Process M M M , M 3 4 Step 1: Identifying the Problem Problem A discrepancy between an existing and desired state of affairs. s p Characteristics of Problems There is pressure to solve the problem. M ~q S e p 5 x The manager must have the authority, information, or resources needed to solve the problem. p S 5 Step 2: Identifying Decision Criteria p 5 Decision criteria are factors that are important to resolving the problem. Costs that will be incurred (investments required) Risks likely to be encountered (chance of failure) Outcomes that are desired (growth of the firm) M : M , M , size... 6 Step 3: Allocating Weights to the Criteria W t p 5 Decision criteria are not of equal importance: g > Assigning a weight to each item places the items in the correct priority order of their importance in the decision making process. ~ q S a 5 x ) M Ex. M , M =10, size=7 , size M 7 , M =10, M Step 4: Developing Alternatives Identifying viable alternatives Alternatives are listed (without evaluation) that can resolve the problem. ~ q S t p 5 x ) M 8 Step 5: Analyzing Alternatives ^ p 5 Appraising each alternative's strengths and weaknesses ~ q S 5 x An alternative's appraisal is based on its ability to resolve the issues identified in steps 2 and 3. Ex. M -> M , M *M 9 , ^ p Step 6: Selecting an Alternative C p 5 Choosing the best alternative f The alternative with the highest total weight is chosen. 10 Step 7: Implementing the Alternative C p 5 Putting the chosen alternative into action. Conveying the decision to and gaining commitment from those who will carry out the decision. ~ q S p 5 x ) C p 5 11 Step 8: Evaluating the Decision's Effectiveness p p 5 The soundness of the decision is judged by its outcomes. How effectively was the problem resolved by outcomes resulting from the chosen alternatives? e If the problem was not resolved, what went wrong? (M , M Part 6 Control function M 12 ) buy a NB h p * h p 1. 2. h 3. h 4. h 5. h p p p p * h h 10 p p 8 * h p * 3 " * 6 4 Curves, GNC, Quinzos, Radio Shack, JaniKing, ChemDry, JacksonHewitt, McDonald's h p " * h p " * Curves, GNC, Quinzos, Radio Shack, Jani King, ChemDry, JacksonHewitt, McDonald's h p " * h p " * Curves, GNC, Quinzos, Radio Shack, JaniKing, Chem Dry, Jackson Hewitt, McDonald's ChemDry 13 Learning Review Define decision and decision-making process Describe the eight steps in the decisionmaking process. 1. A decision criterion defines what is relevant in a decision. 1. The step in the decision-making process that involves choosing a best alternative is termed implementation. 14 15 The Manager as Decision Maker 1. Making Decisions ( M Rationality ( M ) Bounded Rationality ( M Intuitive decision making ( M ) ) ) 2. Types of Problems and Decisions (M M ) 3. Decision-Making Conditions (M (M M ) 4. Decision-Making Styles M ) 16 The Manager as Decision Maker Managers = Decision makers M =M Why ? Decision making is part of all four managerial functions Planning Leading Organizing Controlling 17 M h p S r p S r p S p S h p * p + h p * p + p + h p * p + 18 p + p + 1. Making Decisions Managers can make decisions on the basis : Assumptions of Rationality W z a Bounded Rationality W z a Intuition M 19 Rationality Managers make consistent, value-maximizing choices with specified constraints. ( M gp gp 5 M - gp ) Assumptions are that decision makers: Are perfectly rational, fully objective, and logical. ( M g p 5 ) Have carefully defined the problem and identified all viable alternatives. ( g p 5 ) Have a clear and specific goal ( ) Will select the alternative that maximizes outcomes in the organization's interests rather than in their personal interests. ( p S ) 20 Assumptions of Rationality 21 The perfectly rational model of decision making isn't realistic ~q S z 5 We p 5 , M how to making... So, W e p M e p x * P Making Decisions Bounded Rationality ( M ) Managers make decisions rationally, but are limited (bounded) by their ability to process information. ( p S ) 23 Bounded Rationality ( M ) Assumptions are that decision makers: Will not seek out or have knowledge of all alternatives ( p S ) Will satisfice ( ' ) h choose the first alternative encountered that satisfactorily solves the problem -- rather than maximize the outcome of their decision by considering all alternatives and choosing the best. -- + x 24 Bounded Rationality ( M ) Assumptions are that decision makers (cont.) Decision making may be strongly influenced by the organization's culture, internal politics, power considerations and Escalation of commitment. Escalation of commitment ( M ) an increased commitment to a previous decision despite evidence that it may have been wrong. (~ q S z 5 x ) - p S 25 , . Making Decisions x z The Role of Intuition ( M Intuitive decision making ) Making decisions on the basis of experience, feelings, and accumulated judgment. ( x z 5 M p S ) What's Intuition Experience-based M Affect-initiated ( M Cognitive-based ( M Values or ethics-based ( x z 5 ) ) ) M Subconscious mental ( M ) Rational & Intuitive complementary ( M ) 26 2. Types of Problems and Decisions (X z 5 ) Managers encounter different types of problems and use different types of decisions to resolve them. ( ~ q S X z 5 ` g p 5 ) x ) . X z 5 Structured Problems and Programmed Decision (X z M M ) Unstructured Problems and Nonprogrammed Decisions ( ) Integration ( M ) 27 Structured Problems and Programmed Decision Structured Problems Involve goals that clear. ( { a 5 ) Are familiar (have occurred before). ( M ) Are easily and completely defined--information about the problem is available and complete. ( M M ) Programmed Decision A repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach. ( X ) 90% { a Ex. Ex. M =M = { a 5 , M , 5 , 28 ... Types of Programmed Decisions Managers rely on three types of programmed decisions: Policy M A general guideline for making a decision about a structured problem. ( )f Procedure M A series of interrelated steps that a manager can use to respond (applying a policy) to a structured problem. ( M ~ q S x p 5 x ) ) $50.00 An explicit statement that limits what( manager or employee a z ,, " * can or cannot do. ( p S ) ( z ,, " * 29 Rule M Unstructured Problems z 5 , p S X J. s , z 5 , M Unstructured Problems Problems that are new or unusual and for which information is ambiguous or incomplete. ( x ) 5 3 S S ) Problems that will require custom-made solutions ( p S ). Nonprogrammed Decisions Decisions that are unique and nonrecurring. (M z 5 ) Decisions that generate unique responses. ( ) X 30 l z 5 x , l z 5 p S . level vs. problems vs. Decisions At higher levels in the organizational hierarchy, managers deal more often with difficult, unstructured problems and make nonprogrammed decisions in attempting to resolve these problems and challenges. Lower-level managers handle routine decisions themselves, using programmed decisions. They let upper-level managers handle unusual or difficult decisions. 31 32 Exhibit 68 Programmed vs. Nonprogrammed Decisions 33 3. Decision-Making Conditions M Certainty M Can make an accurate decision because the outcome of every alternative choice is known. ( p S ) Risk M Is able to estimate the likelihood (probability) of outcomes that result from the choice of particular alternatives.(Risk M :M ~ q S z 5 x ) 34 Uncertainty M Limited information prevents estimation of outcome probabilities for alternatives associated with the problem and may force managers to rely on intuition, hunches, and "gut feelings". M x ) 5 3 S f S W z Maximax W z 5 : the optimistic manager's choice to maximize the maximum payoff W z Maximin W z 5 : the pessimistic manager's choice to maximize the minimum payoff M M Minimax W z 5 : the manager's choice to 35 minimize maximum regret 4. Decision-Making Styles M Dimensions of Decision-Making Styles Ways of thinking ( M ) ) x ) x Rational, orderly, and consistent ( Intuitive, creative, and unique ( Tolerance for ambiguity ( ) x Low tolerance: require consistency and order ( D p M ) High tolerance: multiple thoughts simultaneously ( M D p ) 36 Types of Decision Makers Exhibit 612 Decision-Making Matrix 37 Directive Analytic Use minimal information and consider few alternatives. , p * -> r p -> r p * , r p r p , r p * , r p * Make careful decisions in unique situations. p fi + , r p * ., M H Maintain a broad outlook and consider many alternatives in making decisions. -> r p , r p * -> r p * -> M H ,, Avoid conflict by working well with others and being receptive to suggestions. , p * , M . H 38 Conceptual Behavioral Exhibit 614 Overview of Managerial Decision Making 39 W B , "* WB , " W B , " 40 Questions and Problems ...
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