A425_pred - Prediction APS 425 Advanced Managerial Data Analysis APS 425 Winter 2010 Simple Li Si l Linear Regression R i Prediction Instructor G

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Prediction APS 425 - Advanced Managerial Data Analysis (c) Prof. G. William Schwert, 2001-2010 1 APS 425 Winter 2010 Simple Linear Regression: Prediction Instructor: G William Schwer Instructor: G. William Schwert 585-275-2470 [email protected] Ciba-Geigy Ritalin Experiment Ritalin is tested to see if it helps with Central • Ritalin is tested to see if it helps with Central Auditory Processing Disorder (CAPD) – Similar symptoms to ADD/ADHD • Experiment: – Randomly select 64 children All i dit t – All receive auditory test – 32 (control group) receive no drug (or placebo?) – 32 (treatment group) receive varying doses of Ritalin – All children are tested a second time
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Prediction APS 425 - Advanced Managerial Data Analysis (c) Prof. G. William Schwert, 2001-2010 2 Ciba-Geigy Ritalin Experiment DOSAGE = amount of Ritalin received by child • DOSAGE i = amount of Ritalin received by child i • IMPROVE i = child’s 2 nd test score – 1 st test score – Dataset A425_ritalin.wf1 also contains: • AGE of child in months • Gender (FEMALE = 1, for girls) Predictions
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Prediction APS 425 - Advanced Managerial Data Analysis (c) Prof. G. William Schwert, 2001-2010 3 Pd i t i d l Predictions • Predictive model: IMPROVE i = 0.226 + 12.18 DOSAGE i = the estimate of E[ IMPROVE i | DOSAGE i , b 0 , b 1 ] • What is your estimate of the average IMPROVE score for all children who receive a dosage of 0.35 mg/kg? IMPROVE i = 0.226 + 12.18 DOSAGE i = 4.488 • This question asks about the average or expected value for all children who get a DOSAGE of 0.35mg/kg. Predictions • A given child has been administered a DOSAGE of 0.35mg/kg. What value do you predict for the child’s IMPROVE score? IMPROVE i = 0.226 + 12.18 × 0.35 = 4.488 ^ • This question asks you to predict the value for an individual child who gets a DOSAGE of 0.35mg/kg
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Prediction APS 425 - Advanced Managerial Data Analysis (c) Prof. G. William Schwert, 2001-2010 4 Predictions • The prediction of the value for an individual child = the expected value for the population (of all children with DOSAGE = 0.35mg/kg) (see previous two slides) • However, standard errors are different!
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This note was uploaded on 03/03/2010 for the course APS 425 taught by Professor Schwert during the Spring '10 term at Rochester.

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A425_pred - Prediction APS 425 Advanced Managerial Data Analysis APS 425 Winter 2010 Simple Li Si l Linear Regression R i Prediction Instructor G

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