Secision making # 4 Session 12

Secision making # 4 Session 12 - Todays Agenda Decision...

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1 Decision Making #4 MGMT 371 – Class Session #12 Monday, September 22 nd , 2008 Prof. Marc H. Anderson Today’s Agenda More decision biases Overcoming decision biases Your assigned groups! Wason Card Problem Which card(s) must you turn over to determine whether the following statement is false? “If a card has a vowel on one side, then it has an even number on the other side.” A B 4 7 Wason Card Problem Most people answer A and 4 (WRONG!) Commonly explained in terms of the Confirmation Bias People try to confirm the rule (does the 4 have a vowel on the other side?), rather than disprove it (if the 7 has a vowel, then the rule is false) Confirmation Bias People search for evidence that confirms their current beliefs rather than information that challenges their current beliefs WHY? Confirmation feels good or pleasant, disconfirmation feels painful (at least momentarily) Choose any belief, and you can support it! A Confirmatory Environment “People tend to associate, on a long-term basis, with people who think more or less as they do on matters important to them; they read authors with whom they tend to agree, listen to news commentators who interpret current events in a way that they like, and so on.” – Nickerson (1998: 199)
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2 Confirmation Bias and the Positive Test Strategy People typically use a positive test strategy, which involves “testing a hypothesis by looking for examples where the hypothesized property is known or expected to be present rather than absent.” – Davies (2003: 736) Confirmation Bias and Output Interference Not only do people tend to seek supporting evidence, but doing so interferes with the ability to seek contradictory evidence. This is called output interference .” The lesson: If it is important to generate contradictory evidence, you should do so before seeking supporting evidence! Learning the Confirmation Bias “At all levels of education, stress is placed on the importance of being able to justify what one believes… If one is constantly urged to present reasons for opinions that one holds and is not encouraged also to articulate reasons that could be given
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Secision making # 4 Session 12 - Todays Agenda Decision...

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