Cognitive Part 2, 20-27 - Jake Venditto Chow 20 Language...

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Jake Venditto 1/20/10 Chow Language and Thought 20. Base Rate Neglect: In estimating probabilities, people often ignore information on base rates. Although people do not always neglect base rate information, it is a persistent phenomenon. More over, people are particularly bad about applying base rates to themselves. Conjunction Fallacy: Occurs when people estimate that the odds of two uncertain events happening together are greater than the odds of either event happening alone. 21. Alternative Outcomes effect: occurs when people’s belief about whether an outcome will occur changes depending on how alternative outcomes are distributed, even though the summed probability of the alternative outcomes is held constant. 22. Evolutionary psychologists have shown that some errors in reasoning that are seen in laboratory studies disappear or are decreased when problems are presented in ways that resemble the type of input humans would have processed in ancient times.
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