L04Sep09.306 - Lecture 3: Trade and Food Markets FRE 306...

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Lecture 3: Trade and Food Markets FRE 306
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Lec 3: Trade and Food Markets 2 Introduction This lecture about International Trade and Food, emphasis on empirical results Has become an increasingly important area, as Canadian data will show; also important worldwide Important and beneficial from both theoretical and empirical perspectives, with some caveats What about claims of negative effects of trade? Debate about globalization Questions about size of firms in food sector
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Lec 3: Trade and Food Markets 3 Patterns of Trade: 1995-1999 v. 1998-2007 Last 5 years of 1990s (Canada) (1995-99) Total Exports grew @ 8.0%/yr, 2001=US$261 bn Ag and Fish exports grew @ 5.1%/yr Wheat component grew @ 8.5%/yr to 1997, then fell at 18%/yr to 1999 (significant fall in world grains prices) Total Imports grew @ 9.2%/yr; 2001=US$221 bn Ag and Fish imports grew @ 7.2%/yr. Frt & Veg component grew @ 6.0%/yr. Last 9 years 1998-2007 (using data 1997-2008, calculating 3 yr MA) Agric Exports growing @ 3.9%/year Total Exports growing @ 3.9%/yr Most recent 6 years 2001-07, w/ incr value of CDN $ (reducing X) Agric Export growing @ 3.2%/yr Total Exports growing @ 2.1%/yr Export growth variable by period, but rel.strong since 1995
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Lec 3: Trade and Food Markets 4 Patterns of Trade II Growth in agricultural trade appears to be somewhat slower than total trade for Canada 95-99, but to observe LR trends, 5 years is too short (e.g., wheat) Longer term seen with 1998-2008 data added X Growth rate slightly slower (5 to 4%/yr); stronger C$ slows X Ag/fish trade=7 % of total exports, 5% of total imports ag sector accounts for about 2.5% of GDP so agriculture is considerably more trade-intensive than the aggregate economy As data disaggregated by year, commodity, more time- and subsector-specific issues at work, bringing more “noise” into data (as in wheat), making it difficult to see LR trend
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5 BC Agricultural Exports by commodity Category Ann. Growth rate, 1990/92-2005/07 Cereals -3% Flour +15% Oilseeds +7% Beef +2% Hogs +7% Poultry +11% Tomatoes +25% Cucumbers +23% Mushrooms/Peppers +15% Apples -0.14% Cherries +110% Berries +9% Cranberries/Blueberries +10%* in USD, 2003-2007
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Lec 3: Trade and Food Markets 6 BC Agricultural Exports Cereals not really BC exports; from CDN Prairie provinces; declining export growth reflects declining real prices of grains, quantities may not be declining much Some value-added exports growing well, e.g. flour Most dramatic export growth from Horticulture Vegetable exports are from greenhouse vegetables
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This note was uploaded on 03/09/2010 for the course LFS FRE 306 taught by Professor Barichello during the Winter '09 term at The University of British Columbia.

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L04Sep09.306 - Lecture 3: Trade and Food Markets FRE 306...

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