prob and stat PROJECT 2

prob and stat PROJECT 2 - 1 Part One: Brief In t roduction...

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1 Part One: Brief Introduction 1) What is the probability that Snoopy got the first question correct? The test snoopy is taking is a true and false test. The two possible outcomes for each question are true and false. These two possible outcomes are equally likely which means they each have a ½ or 50% chance of having a correct outcome. This means Snoopy’s probability of getting the question correct is ½ or 50%. 2) What is the probability that Snoopy got the fifth question correct? With having the same two equally likely possible outcomes of true and false in each question the probability is the same for each of the questions on the test. The probability does not increase nor decrease with the change in question. Outcomes true and false have an equally likely possibility of having the outcome be correct. One out of the two outcomes of true and false for the question is correct which means the probability that snoopy got the fifth question right is ½ or 50%. Part Two: Finding Experimental Probabilities for One or Two Stage Events A) First Question Correct 1) With the probability simulation application, the coin model matched each of the two different equally likely possible outcomes. The two possible outcomes are true and false and they both have an equally likely possibility of having a correct outcome. The true and false outcomes having a correct outcome matched with one of the equally likely outcomes in the flip of a standard coin. Heads is equal to the answer or outcome being correct and Tails is equal to the answer or outcome being incorrect. A single trial in this problem consisted of flipping a standard coin and recording the outcome of the flip being either heads (correct) or tails (incorrect). The success associated with a trial is having a heads on a flip, if tails then it is a failure. This represented the number of correct outcomes compared to the total number of correct and incorrect outcomes.
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2 With the coin simulation, trials were conducted 600 times by making the trial set 600. The combined results can be recorded into a frequency table or graph, or a probability table or graph. With this problem the solution can be approximated by taking the number of heads (correct answer) and comparing it to the number of tails (wrong answer) in the 600 trials. This gave us an estimate to the probability of snoopy getting the right answer in a question with two equally likely possible outcomes. 2) We chose the coin model because it relates well to the problem situation.The flipping of a standard coin has two equally likely possible outcomes just like the outcomes in the problem. With this program trial sets can be put to any 1, 2, or 3 digit number which made it quick and easy to conduct 600 trials. This program uses tables and graphs for organizing and displaying the data making it easy to read and interpret. Creating a model from the coin program in the probability simulation application is effective and efficient for the problem situation. 3) The exact outcomes are uncertain but we know what outcomes are possible to
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This note was uploaded on 03/10/2010 for the course MATH 2650 taught by Professor Browning during the Spring '10 term at Western Michigan.

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prob and stat PROJECT 2 - 1 Part One: Brief In t roduction...

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