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lec_6 - ECN 111B US Economic History since the Civil War...

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Unformatted text preview: ECN 111B US Economic History since the Civil War Winter 2010 Lecture 6 Population & Demographic Trends Outline Population Trends Demographic Models Death rates Birth rates Readings Walton and Rockoff pp. 348­355 Atack and Passell ch. 8 Further reading: Steckel,­Richard H.. “The Fertility Transition in the United States: Tests of Alternative Hypotheses” In Goldin,­ Claudia; Rockoff,­Hugh, eds. Strategic factors in nineteenth century American economic history: A volume to honor Robert W. Fogel. A National Bureau of Economic Research Conference Report, Chicago and London: University of Chicago Press, 1992, pp 351­74. Which country is this? “…No human condition there operates as a hindrance to reproduction, and the children swarm on the rich land in the same manner as do insects…” Source: Atack and Passell Population (feeding into ‘L’!) Variables of interest a) Birth rate b) Death rate c) Immigration Growth rate of population decreased over the long run Rates were very high early on Comparable to India in 19th century Demographic Transition in the USA Crude Birth and Death Rate per 1000 Natural Rate of Growth Death Rate-- USA Birth rate Death rate Time Death Rates: The Leader in Death the Transition? the * Over the long-run we see a falling trend in death rates 1700 40 per 1000 1850 23 per 1000 1900 17 per 1000 Can we explain this? • Medical knowledge and reduced disease virulence • Better nutrition and urban amenities like sewage, piped water… OR The 1800-1880 puzzle: decreasing life expectancy The 1800-1880 Puzzle Output/person appears to be increasing Life expectancies are increasing after 1880 --urbanization is also increasing --no sewage systems or waste treatment --housing was improving --Immigration waves --Factory production --Farm productivity is lagging Birth Rates Three Phenomena •Urban/Rural Gap •Decline over time •White/African-American Gap Urban/Rural Gap Number of Children depends on: •Abundant land: Scarce labor You produce your own inputs Hold those inputs captive •outside opportunities in industry •urbanization Number of children under 5 years old per 1,000 women aged 20-44 Year Urban Rural 1800 845 1319 1820 900 1276 1236 1840 701 1134 1070 1910 469 782 609 USA Total 1281 Source: (Atack and Passell, p.217) Live births per 1000 population Declining Birthrates Target Bequest Model I •People want to pass on wealth to each child •Farms on frontier have more opportunity •Conclude: Children should be more valuable on frontier THEY ARE NOT Target Bequest Model II •People value children for care when old •As outside opportunities increases default increases •Value of children decreases Birthrate Iowa Nebraska Ohio NY N. Hampshire Source: Atack and Passell African American/EuropeanAmerican Gaps African Americans have higher birth rates •Partially reflects high infant morality •Reflects lower income levels •Worse access to medical care •Low birth weights The Birth Rate Gap: Americans of European Origin vs. African-Americans 70 60 Birthrate per 1000 per year 50 40 30 20 10 0 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 Year 1900 1910 1920 1930 African-Americans European Origins Summary Population growth slowed over time There was a ‘demographic transition’ Population grows for systematic reasons (target bequest model, death rates…) There were differences by population group ...
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