Class%2019%20--%20Decision-Making%20III - Class 18...

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Unformatted text preview: Class 18: Decision­Making III Please sit with your Group MGTS 3401 Cummings Inference Data MGTS 3401 Cummings Your Key Variable Data MGTS 3401 Cummings READ about your variable. ► What causes it? ► What does it cause? ► What mediates or moderates these relationships? USE the findings of your readings (based on their data, not just ideas), to write your own “cause effect” prediction(s) about your variable, in your organization. MGTS 3401 Cummings Developing Hypotheses Possibilities, based on the findings from Possibilities, based on the findings from your Approved Research Articles 1) Key Variable ­­­ Dependent variable from readings 2) Independent Variable Key variable from readings ­­ 3) IV ­ Key Variable ­­­­DV 4) IV ­­­­­­­ Key Variable DV Your Hypothesis Data Your organization MGTS 3401 Cummings Variables versus Predictions ► Measuring or Manipulating level of some varying characteristic. ► Using at least two variables what predictions might we make? Cause Effect Hypothesis. MGTS 3401 Cummings ► Counts of outcomes Measuring Your Variables ► Counts of behaviors Multiple raters ► Individual perceptions, attitudes, emotions, personality characteristics multiple survey items for every variable MGTS 4443 Cummings How we know what we know Research Designs ► Case Study ► Field Study ► Lab Experiment ► Field Experiment Data Collection Techniques ► Unstructured interview ► Survey ► Structured Interview ► Structured Observation ► Experiment MGTS 3401 Cummings Structured Observation ► Make sure behaviors are drawn directly from reading about your variable(s); measure them like your article does ► Bringing behavioral list by my office is highly recommended ► Get manager approval to observe at those times ► More than one observer each time; watching and recording separately MGTS 3401 Cummings ► Use the items and scales that your article does! ► Bring them by my office (appointment on my Surveys ► Get manager approval and choice door, or Walk­in Office Hours) before distributing them; required Confidential – you won’t show manager, vs. Manager wants to see surveys ►You need to be clear about, and tell survey ► Number them, or Anonymous (no names) ► Collect on site (in a meeting?) is best completers, which one… practice MGTS 3401 Cummings So, what makes a good survey? ► Use Multiple items (questions) to assess each variable. Var 1 Item 1 Var 1 Item 2 Var 1 Item 3 Var 2 Item 1 Var 2 Item 2 Var 2 Item 3 Var 2 Item 4 ► Items measuring the same variable “hang together” the scale (of multiple items) has internal reliability alpha > .70 ► So, USE measures already published in research articles; these are tested questions, that work well together, and measure levels of what they say they do. MGTS 3401 Cummings Structured Interviews ► Bring questions by my office required ► Make sure questions are drawn from your reading and about your variable(s); use pre­tested items! ► Get manager approval to ask those questions of employees ► Same person or two interview all parties, if possible MGTS 3401 Cummings Types of Interviews Unstructured Interview ►Broad Question ►Open­Ended Semi—Structured Structured Interview Interview ►Standard Questions ►Standard questions ►One specific topic per Question ►Then listen ►Just keep responder focused on topic ►Responder controls question ►Same order ►Samewording Open­ended responses length and content of response ►Responder answers on a numerical scale e.g. (1 – 5, or 1­7). MGTS 3401 Cummings Idea for an Experiment? Idea for an Experiment? ► Come See Me! MGTS 3401 Cummings Group Decisions Quickly: Choose one volunteer from your group That volunteer please bring up written Johnson Racing Decision from all of your members That volunteer will also play an additional role (I’ll tell you when you get up here) Rest of group: do not discuss Johnson Racing. Have fun, talk about something else! MGTS 3401 Cummings Group Decisions ► Quickly: One volunteer from each group to front of the room. ► More thoughtfully: Group Decision ­­ To Race or Not to Race? MGTS 3401 Cummings Report from Observers Report from Observers ► Plan Decision­Making Approach? ► Process Conflict? Task Conflict? ► What Decision­Making Technique(s) did the group use? ► What did group do to prevent Process Losses (and maximize Actual Effectiveness)? MGTS 3401 Cummings Effects of Group Processes = + MINUS Goal: Maximize Process Gains While Minimizing Process Losses! E X H I B I T 10–5 MGTS 3401 Cummings Steps in Decision­Making 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Define the problem. Identify importance and type of decision. Identify the decision criteria. Biases? Allocate weights to the criteria. Also Probabilities ­­ Estimate them? Expected Value? Develop the alternatives. Use creativity. But check for full information. Evaluate the alternatives. Biases? Select the best alternative. MGTS 3401 Cummings What Type of Decision? ► Programmed decision ► Nonprogrammed decision Routines (predetermined courses of action) employed to deal with frequently occurring situations. The process of addressing unique or novel situations confronting the organization. MGTS 3401 Cummings The Process ► Why did groups decide to race? ► Why did groups decide not to race? ► More analytically, and applying Course Principles: Why didn’t more groups decide NOT to race? MGTS 3401 Cummings Sampling on the Dependent Variable MGTS 3401 Cummings Full Sampling MGTS 3401 Cummings Recognize Groupthink ► Group members rationalize any resistance to the assumptions they have made. ► Members apply direct pressures on those who express doubts about shared views or who question the alternative favored by the majority. view keep silent about misgivings. ► Members who have doubts or differing points of ► There is an illusion of unanimity. MGTS 3401 Cummings Toward Reducing Bias and Errors ► Focus on goals. ► Look for information that disconfirms beliefs. Clear goals make decision making easier and help to eliminate options inconsistent with your interests. Explicitly considering ways we could be wrong challenges our tendencies to think we’re smarter than we actually are. ► Don’t try to create meaning out of random events or coincidence. ► Increase your options. The number and diversity of alternatives generated increases the chance of finding an outstanding one. MGTS 3401 Cummings E X H I B I T 5–5 Problems in the Decision­Making Process ► Misunderstanding a situation ► Rushing the decision­making process Incomplete or poorly organized information Limited or selective perception of the situation Mistaking symptoms for the problem itself Limiting the search for alternatives Inadequately evaluating courses of action Using the wrong decision­making technique MGTS 3401 Cummings Common Biases and Errors Overconfidence Bias ► Anchoring Bias ► Confirmation Bias ► Availability Bias ► Representative Bias ► Winner’s Curse ► Escalation of Commitment ► Randomness Error ► Hindsight Bias ► Prospect Theory; risk of gain versus loss ► Sampling on the Dependent Variable ► MGTS 3401 Cummings ► Improving the role of individuals Improving Decision Making Use heterogeneous groups to expand the knowledge base. Hold individuals accountable for preparation Use a devil’s advocate to challenge decisions. Use an Observer or Process Manager to ensure a structured process is followed MGTS 3401 Cummings What is “negotiation?” An interactive communication process that may take place whenever you want something from somebody else or they want something from you. MGTS 3401 Cummings Distributive Bargaining MGTS 3401 Cummings Integrative Negotiations: How do you make the pie bigger? MGTS 3401 Cummings Distributive Bargaining Reach agreement most favorable to self; Claim Value in a Fixed Pie vs. Integrative Negotiations Create Value for multiple parties, Enlarge the Pie; Then Claim Value for Self, piece of larger pie. MGTS 3401 Cummings How do you set a Target? ► Standards and Norms Average House Price? MGTS 3401 Cummings Negotiation Planning ► Target or Aspiration Point ► Resistance Point or Reservation Point MGTS 3401 Cummings How do you set a Resistance Point? ► Best ► To a ► Alternative ► Negotiated ► Agreement MGTS 3401 Cummings For Friday If your last name starts with A – K, please read the “Pat” short case, and prepare to negotiate in class on Wednesday. If you last name starts with L – Z, please read the “Chris” short case, and prepare to negotiate in class on Wednesday Please see Detailed Instructions in the FNT folder. MGTS 3401 Cummings ...
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