15 - Engineering Decision Making

15 - Engineering Decision Making - Engineering and Society:...

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Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2009 Engineering and Society: Engineering Decision Making Dr. Gershon Weltman Engineering 183EW, UCLA SEAS Lecture 15
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  2 Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2009 Lecture Objectives The Decision Environment Attributes of Analytical Decision Making Decisions With Certain Outcomes Decisions With Uncertain Outcomes Moral and Ethical Factors Group Decision Making Decision Aiding Decisions Under Stress Summary -- The Decision Matrix
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  3 Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2009 The Decision Environment 1 Real World Situation Model Course of Action Analysis Test Is some delay acceptable? Is the cost of an error high? Is the situation unfamiliar or problematic? Is traceability/accountability desirable? Decision Analysis 1 After: Cohen, M.S. “Improving Critical Thinking,” Cognitive Technologies, Inc., 2005 If yes, inhibit If yes, proceed Naturalistic Decision Making Analytical Decision Making
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  4 Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2009 Analytical Decision Making A Professional Requirement Working Level Management Level Strategic and Policy Level A Cognitive Process Conscious Performance Meta-Cognitive Evaluation A Learnable Skill Methodology Experience and Practice Feedback and Adjustment Dealing with Stress
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  5 Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2009 Main Decision Analysis Types “Certain” Outcome “Probabilistic” Outcome
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  6 Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2009 Decisions With Certain Outcomes Typical Conditions A number of acceptable Alternatives Alternatives have several Attributes or Characteristics Objective is to select Best Alternative Typical Decision Criteria Minimum Cost Maximum Value Maximum Utility (Universal Measure of Value) Useful Method: Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis (MAUA) Options Attributes Utility Function (Relative Value of Attributes) Weighting Function (Relative Importance of Attributes)
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  7 Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2009 MAUA 1: Options and Attributes 1 Car Purchase Options 2 Attribute Alta Bulldog Cruiser Delta Egret Fleet Garnett 3 Cost -$20 -$18 -$16 -$14 -$12 -$10 -$15 4 Lifetime 10 10 8 8 6 6 8 5 Pollution Low Medium Low Medium Medium High High 6 7 Cost: Thousands of Dollars 8 Lifetime: Estimated Years 9 Pollution: 3-Level Test Summary
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  8 Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2009 MAUA 2: Dominated Option 1 Car Purchase Options 2 Attribute Alta Bulldog Cruiser Delta Egret Fleet Garnett 3 Cost -$20 -$18 -$16 -$14 -$12 -$10 -$15 4 Lifetime 10 10 8 8 6 6 8 5 Pollution Low Medium Low Medium High High High 6 7 Cost: Thousands of Dollars 8 Lifetime: Estimated Years 9 Pollution: 3-Level Test Summary Garnett costs more than the Delta, has the same lifetime and has a higher pollution rating; it is thus “dominated” and can be eliminated
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  9 Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2009 MAUA 3: Monetary Equivalents 1 Car Purchase Options 2 Attribute Alta Bulldog Cruiser Delta Egret Fleet 3 Cost -$20 -$18 -$16 -$14 -$12 -$10 4 Lifetime $2 $2 $1 $1 $0 $0 5 Pollution $6 $4 $6 $4 $0 $0 6 Cost -$12 -$12 -$9 -$9 -$12 -$10 7 8 Cost -$ Thousand 9 Lifetime
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This note was uploaded on 03/12/2010 for the course ENGR 183 taught by Professor Weltman during the Winter '08 term at UCLA.

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15 - Engineering Decision Making - Engineering and Society:...

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