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Unformatted text preview: IR Notes Lecture 25—April 24, 2007 Applying Theory to Policy: The Case of Iran I. Historical background II. Iran’s Pursuing of Nuclear Technology III. Explaining Tension with Iran IV. Policy Options I. Historical background a) 1953: US and GB covertly supported a coup that ousted a PM that had been moving in the direction of nationalizing their oil industry i) Nationalization implied communism and a loss of petroleum interests b) Run by secular and Western Shah until revolution in 1979 forced him into exile c) Government since then is a theology with highly constrained democracy d) Since then US has frozen 10-12 billion dollar of Iranian assets and froze relations e) Iran has supported terrorist activities, notably Hizbollah, and been put on list of state sponsors of terrorism and part of Axis of Evil II. Iran’s Pursuit of Nuclear Technicolor (look at how history, theory, and policy interact) i) Pursuit goes back decade, predates revolution ii) Thought to be creating plutonium and uranium sources (1) Centrifuges they have gotten from European and Chinese sources (2) AQ Khan network linked to Iran (3) Missile technology from NK (4) scientists have been trained at variety of Western universities iii) signatory to NPT but Tehran in recent years has become increasingly resistant to inspections of its nuclear facilities iv) leadership maintains they are pursuing civilian nuclear program but rest of world doesn’t believe this v) concern not just with nukes but also with their missile technology vi) put this together with provocative statements only heightens suspicions, tensions b) Why? i) Deter the US whom they see as aggressive (1) Worried about sustained US precense nearby, and Axis of Evil rhetoric (a) If this is true, it’s as much about regime stability as about the defense of the Iranian state ii) Expand Iran’s Regional Influence (1) Deterring Israel, a resurgent Iraq, or unstable Pakistan—in a dangerous neighborhood iii) Demonstrate Iran’s status (1) Leadership position with the Mideast providing prestige as they would be only country other than Israel to have weapons (2) Best way to accomplish this is to acquire nukes iv) Grain domestic political capital (1) Source of pride for many Iranians and backing down would be seen as a...
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This note was uploaded on 03/12/2010 for the course GOVT 006 taught by Professor Wallander during the Spring '08 term at Georgetown.
- Spring '08