Example of Demographic Projection

Example of Demographic Projection - / E xamples o f D...

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/ Examples of Demographic Projection and Other Forecasting Problems that May Be Solved by Methods We are Considering 1. Like many small towns in the northern plain states, the municipality of Vanishing Point, North Dakota has been experiencing a slow but steady population decrease. When the Census results were obtained for 1990, the regional planner expected to find that the population had dwindled to about one-half of the 19BO figure of 3,000. Assuming that the annual proportionate rate of reduction in the population over the decade was constant, what was the value of this rate? The town's mayor, Ima Stayin, and the town's planner, Al B. Leavin, are concerned that basic services will have to be cut off (or purchased from private vendors> and that the municipality may have to disincorporate if the tax base shrinks too much more. They estimate that the critical population level at which this condition might arise is about BOO. If the current trend persists into the indefinite future and additional state or federal aid is not forthcoming, in what year would this level be reached and the "lights be turned out" on Vanishing Point? 2. The Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) of a Midwestern state noticed the propensity of college students to purchase vanity license plates and realized that it could increase state revenues t~xough a de facto 'vanity ta~' by issuing vanity plates to the "me generation" in college towns at a price that was higher than the true cost of manufacture. The first year the DMV sold only 5,000 plates. But demand grew exponentially from the first year~ swooping upwards with no leveling off in sight. After five years of vanity plate production, annual sales had more than doubled to 10,057. What was the rate of growth over this period and what would the annual sales be in another five years if this growth rate in me-ness were to continue? 3. A six-year drought and ongoing development ln the Southwestern United States have made water rights an important regional planning issue. Decreasing water availability is a real impending limit to growth of communities in this region. Consider the case of Verdant Valley, a community whose principal source of water is the Colorado River. Because of the drought and up-river development the amount of water available to residents of this community has been decreasing at the rate of about 2.5% per year. The population of the community, which now stands at ~5,OOO, has nonetheless been increasing at the annual rate of 500 people per year. If the amount of water now available to residents would provide for the needs of 60,000 people, in roughly how many years would the community be faced with the decision of either having to litigate for water rights, ceasing further growth, or changing the
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community's name to Dry Gulch? (Note that this
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This note was uploaded on 03/16/2010 for the course CRP 3210 at Cornell University (Engineering School).

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Example of Demographic Projection - / E xamples o f D...

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