captree - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19...

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Possible demands Name Size Name Probability Low Lowd 500000 Lowp 0.7 High Highd 1000000 0.3 Unit building cost capacity Now capnow 10 Next year capnext 18 sales Capacity costs unit cost beginning of Year Capacity operating cost capoc 1.2 end of yr. This year's sales price prnow 8 This year's unit cost costnow 4 unit cost to reduce capacity capred 2 interest rate r_ 0.15 inflation rate I 0.05 year 1 profit/unit of sales Year1pr 3.48 year 2 onward profit/unit of sales Yeargte2pr 36.52 cost of 1 unit capacity year 2 on Yeargte2cap 12.6 #NAME? #NAME? -2165217.39 #NAME? 70.0% Decision 1739130.43 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 11960869.57 #NAME? #NAME? Chance -5600000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 16095652.17 #NAME? 30.0% Decision 1739130.43 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? $11,960,869.57 #NAME? Decision #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 11091304.35 #NAME? 70.0% Decision 1739130.43 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 5660869.57 #NAME? Chance -11200000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 11091304.35 #NAME? 30.0% Decision 3478260.87 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 23921739.13 #NAME? A B C D E F G H 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53
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$E$2 $C$7 $C$3 -0.73 ### -0.28 ### -0.24 8734000 -0.6 ### -0.18 ### -0.09 ### -0.48 ### -0.07 ### 0.07 ### -0.35 ### 0.03 ### 0.22 ### -0.22 ### 0.14 9021594.2 0.38 ### -0.1 ### 0.24 ### 0.53 ### 0.03 ### 0.35 ### 0.69 ### 0.16 ### 0.45 ### 0.84 ### 0.29 ### 0.56 8100000 1 ### -100.0% -50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% 150.0% 8000000 9000000 10000000 11000000 12000000 13000000 14000000 15000000 Spider Graph of Decision $E$2 $C$7 $C$3 % Change from Base Value Value
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Sensitivity Analysis on Cell $E$39 0.19 13447971 0.46 10351159 0.28 12152898 ### 0.54 9983623 Decision Opt. Path 1 : Build Lo2 : Build High 0.1 ### 0.1 ### ### 0.19 ### 0.19 ### ### 0.28 ### 0.28 ### ### 0.37 ### 0.37 ### ### 0.46 ### 0.46 ### ### 0.54 ### 0.54 ### ### 0.63 ### 0.63 ### 6972608.7 0.72 ### 0.72 ### ### 0.81 ### 0.81 ### ### 0.9 ### 0.9 ### 3087391.3 Decision Opt. Path 1 : Build Lo2 : Build High 11 ### 11 ### ### 12.89 ### 12.89 ### ### 14.78 ### 14.78 ### ### 16.67 ### 16.67 ### ### 18.56 ### 18.56 ### ### 20.44 9021594.2 20.44 9021594.2 ### 22.33 ### 22.33 ### ### 24.22 ###
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