hippocap - Utility A B C D E a b c 1 -0.64 4.17 2...

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Utility Page 1 a b c -0.64 4.17 1.06 x actual Predicted Sq Err -2 0 0.02 0 -1.2 0.25 0.2 0 1 0.5 0.56 0 2.6 0.75 0.72 0 10 1 1 0 SSE 0.01 x u(x) 0.5 0.54 0.5 u(x)=a*e -x/b +c Expected Utility of best capacity level -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 actual Predicted A B C D E F G H I J K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
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PIGCO Page 2 Pigco Capacity #NAME? Unit op cost 0.3 Price $2.20 Compet %age 0.2 Unit Building cos 3.5 Unit Var Cost $0.40 Year 1 Market Si 1000000 Interest Rate 0.1 Year 1 worst sha 0.2 Entrant Prob 0.4 Year 1 most likely 0.4 Year 1 best share 0.7 Year 1 2 3 4 5 Market Size 1000000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 0 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Entrants #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Unit Sales #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Revenues #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Simulation Results for hippocap.xls Costs #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Building cost #NAME? Iterations= 100 Fixed op cost #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Simulations= 9 Profits #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? # Input Variables= 0 # Output Variables= 1 NPV #NAME? Sampling Type= Latin Hypercube Utility #NAME? Runtime= 00:00:05 Simulation Results for hippocap.xls Summary Statistics Iterations= 100 Simulations= 9 Cel Name Minimum Mean Maximum # Input Variables= 0 100000 NPV 250436.2 250436.2 250436.2 # Output Variables= 1 150000 NPV 244505.4 370968.3 375654.3 Sampling Type= Latin Hypercube 200000 NPV 110370.9 474599.4 500872.4 Runtime= 00:00:06 250000 NPV -23763.63 539565.3 626090.5 300000 NPV -197420.4 550203.8 751308.6 B19 (Sim#6) NPV -413373.2 502026.5 876526.7 Summary Statistics B19 (Sim#7) NPV -629325.9 407910.5 1001745 B19 (Sim#8) NPV -8.45E+05 2.73E+05 1.13E+06 Cel Name Minimum Mean Maximum B19 (Sim#9) NPV -1061231 103935.8 1242234 100000 Utility 0.45 0.45 0.45 150000 Utility 46.77% 0.47 0.47 Name NPV NPV NPV NPV NPV NPV NPV NPV NPV 200000 Utility 0.46 0.49 0.49 Description Output (Sim#1)
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hippocap - Utility A B C D E a b c 1 -0.64 4.17 2...

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