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Unformatted text preview: ARE 157 HOMEWORK 2 Winter 2010 due Wednesday, Feb. 3 at start of class M.Whitney 1 (34 pts) Forecasting using data smoothing. a.(16) Go to the US Census Bureaus Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services web page: http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html . Download Monthly Retail Trade Report Excel 1992-present. Now, on a spreadsheet, enter a column of monthly dates in Column A, from May 2007 through Oct 2009. You will have 30 rows. (Excel will generate these dates for you, using copy command) In column B, enter the corresponding sales data for New Car Dealers, (NAICS Code 44111, not seasonally adjusted). Notice there are tabs across the bottom of the Census table, to access the earlier years data. Next, we will forecast this variable using 8 time series models: (1) simple 3-month moving average; (2) weighted 3 month moving average with weights .6, .3, .1; (3) simple six-month moving average; (4--8) simple exponential smoothing with alpha = 0, alpha = .2, alpha = .5; alpha = .8, and alpha = 1. So your spreadsheet will have one column of dates, then a column of actual data, followed by 8 columns of...
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This note was uploaded on 03/18/2010 for the course ARE 157 taught by Professor Whitney during the Winter '08 term at UC Davis.
- Winter '08