EEP101_lecture19climatech

EEP101_lecture19climatech - EEP-101-lecture 19 David...

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EEP-101-lecture 19 David Zilberman Climate Change
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Topics The Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture How Climate Change Impacts Should Be Addressed Policies to Delay and Dampen Climate Change The Feasibility and Management of Sink Activities
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Direct impacts on agriculture Movement of warmer climate from the tropics to the Poles Mexican climate will migrate to California. California climate will migrate to Oregon. Most of Texas and Oklahoma will become a desert, and some areas in Canada will increase in productivity. Increased snow melt,flooding and changes of volume and timing of irrigation water
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Agriculture’s Response to climate change Adaptation-farmers will change inputs use and switch crops Redesign and reconstruction of water systems Some areas near the tropics will be deserted; some areas close to the Poles will be farmed. The net aggregate effect effect may not be significant, but the regional effects may be substantial.
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Climate Change and Agriculture Hot crop near equator,cold one near poles. With CC movement to the pole,settlement close to poles transition from cold to hot,desertification
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Other impacts on agriculture Fertilization effect : Higher levels of carbon will increase yield. Daylight effect : Moving north will reduce exposure to the sun and reduce yield. Pest effect: Warmer climate will lead to northward movement of pest and reduce yield. Protein effect : Increase in carbon will lead to higher yields but less protein production.
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Methods for modeling climate change Hedonic Price (Richardian) Models Impacts of climate change will be reflected in asset values. Agro-economic models Agronomic estimates of CG impacts on on yields and cost are used to simulate land-use output and prices Stochastic Simulations Consider impacts of estimated changes in mean and variability of yields and profits and land use Regional Case Studies Interdisciplinary--combine quantitative estimates with expert interviews to assess response to changes.
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The Richardian model Suppose Rent=-40 +5*temperature-.06*temperature squared Climate change will increase temperature by several degrees We have a distribution of lands with different initial temperatures How will they be affected by climate chagne?
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Problems of current impact models Food Prices reflect temporal market situations Currently there is excess supply of food. Future conditions depend on the race between population growth and productivity growth Rents reflect commodity support and hide variability among regions Models underemphasize pest, fertilization and similar effects Models ignore transition and infrastructure costs-they compares equilibria- but transition matters Under emphasize regional effects
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Fertilization and Pest Effects Higher amounts of carbon in the atmosphere will increase photosynthesis and plant productivity and thus increase overall supply.
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