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EEP101_lecture17risk

EEP101_lecture17risk - Risk Population and the Environment...

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Risk Population and the Environment ((3 101 / ecture 17 David Zilberman
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On Population and the Environment The environment consists of many interacting and interdependent population of species. It is evolving, yet in the short run it seems to be at equilibrium. In traditional systems, none of the species was dominant enough to suppress the others. We have seen that when one of the species (humans) has the capacity to dominate others (whale, kelp) it does it at its own peril.
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The Role of Policy Natural selection and “laissez faire” lead to environmental sustainability when none of the species dominate. Government intervention and control of behavior are needed to control humans with potentially destructive technology. Policy intervention can be in terms of: Incentives Direct control Education Institutions
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Policy and Risk The impacts of policies are uncertain, and the environment is subject to stochastic forces. Methodologies to both model risk and analyze choices under risk are crucial for effective policymaking. There are alternative approaches to risk. Economic and decision theoretic models measure risk as deviations from the norm or average. They emphasize assessing the impact of such deviations on behavior and their cost. Public health develops risk assessment techniques that define risk explicitly as the probability of data outcome.
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Properties of Risk Assessment Models Risk = probability that a member of a population will die or get sick during a period of time. Risk-generating functions = relationship between risk and processes that cause it. The knowledge needed for risk-generation functions is interdisciplinary. It provides the base for both estimation and policymaking.
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