Solutions-Tutorial-2

Solutions-Tutorial-2 - lie detector. Optional Exercises...

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AB103 – Statistical and Quantitative Methods Solutions - Tutorial 2 Chapter 3 (MBS) 3.6 3.12 a. The 5 sample points are: Total population, Agricultural change, Presence of industry, Growth, and Population concentration b. The probabilities are best estimated with the sample proportions. Thus, P (Total population) = .18 P (Agricultural change) = .05 P (Presence of industry) = .27 P (Growth) = .05 P (Population concentration) = .45 c. Define the following event: A : {Factor specified is population-related} P ( A ) = P (Total population) + P (Growth) + P (Population concentration) = .18 + .05 + .45 = .68.
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3.16 See a clip of Jai Lai here …. . 3.20
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3.36 3.44 + P (D) -
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3.52 3.58
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3.62 c. Let A2 be the event that CVSA yields incorrect results for 2 out of 4 suspects CVSA can yield incorrect results for 2 suspects out of 4 in 6 {= 2 4 }different ways. P (A2) = 6* (0.98) 2 * (0.02) 2 = 0.0023 Since this probability is very low, we would doubt the claimed accuracy rate of the new
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Unformatted text preview: lie detector. Optional Exercises 3.14 e. Since there were 335,770 carloads that week, the probability of selecting any one in particular would be 1 / 335,770 = .00000298. Thus, the probability of selecting the carload with the serial number 1003642 is .00000298. 3.18 3.26 a. P ( A c ) = P ( E 3 ) + P ( E 6 ) + P ( E 8 ) = 0.2 + 0.3 + 0.03 = 0.53 b. P ( B c ) = P ( E 1 ) + P ( E 7 ) + P ( E 8 ) = 0.10 + 0.06 + 0.03 = .19 c. P ( A c ∩ B ) = P ( E 3 ) + P ( E 6 ) = 0.2 + 0.3 = 0.5 d. P ( A ∪ B ) = P ( E 1 ) + P ( E 2 ) + P ( E 3 ) + P ( E 4 ) + P ( E 5 ) + P ( E 6 ) + P ( E 7 ) = .10 + .05 + .20 + .20 + .06 + .30 + .06 = .97 e. P ( A ∩ B ) = P ( E 2 ) + P ( E 4 ) + P ( E 5 ) = .05 + .20 + .06 = .31 f. P ( A c ∪ B c ) = P ( E 1 ) + P ( E 7 ) + P ( E 3 ) + P ( E 6 ) + P ( E 8 ) = .10 + .06 + .20 + .30 + 0.03 = .69 g. No. A and B are mutually exclusive if P ( A ∩ B ) = 0. Here, P ( A ∩ B ) = .31. 3.32 3.38 3.50 3.54...
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This note was uploaded on 03/21/2010 for the course BIZ ab103 taught by Professor Woo during the Spring '10 term at Nanzan.

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Solutions-Tutorial-2 - lie detector. Optional Exercises...

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