econ125hwk8 - Question #1: Percentage Errors...

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Question #1: Percentage Errors (Projection-Actual/Actual)*100 Linear in b25 type =((B4-H4)/H4)*100 Exp in C25 type =((C4-H4)/H4)*100 Shift Share in D25 type =((D4-H4)/H4)*100 Share of Growth in E25 type =((E4-H4)/H4)*100 Naïve in F25 type =((F4-H4)/H4)*100 In G25 type =abs(B25) drag across and down Question #2: MALPE mean algebraic percent error MAPE mean absolute percent error In B36 = average(B25:B34) In B38 =average(G25:G34) MEDAPE median absolute percent error In B39 =median(G25:G34) %Positive # of positive errors/# of forecast type =countif(B25:B34,“>=0”)/10 make percentage Pre naïve forecast really basic forecast; you hope that your forecast technic will be an improved over the naïve forecast Type =($F$38-B38)/$F$38*100 Pre bassed on MALPE Type =(($F$36-B36)/$F$36)*100 Question #3: The most interesting result is that all the projections have a higher error based on the naïve projection. All the techniques have MALPE values between 3.24 and 3.36 while the naïve
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This note was uploaded on 03/22/2010 for the course ECON 125 taught by Professor Tayman during the Spring '08 term at UCSD.

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econ125hwk8 - Question #1: Percentage Errors...

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