D0E29 L10 - D0E29 - Theory of Economic Growth Lecture 10...

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Unformatted text preview: D0E29 - Theory of Economic Growth Lecture 10 Spring term 2008 Anna Salomons A. Salomons ( CES, KU Leuven) D0E29 L10 1 / 53 From this morning&s paper Study shows that smoking ban keeps teens o/ habit Youths who lived in towns with strict bans were less likely to become regular smokers than those in communities with no bans or weak ones, the researchers reported in the May issue of the Archives of Pediatrics ¡ Adolescent Medicine. The researchers tracked 2791 children aged between 12 and 17 who lived throughout the northeastern state of Massachusetts. There were no statewide restrictions when the study began in 2001 since Massachusetts banned smoking in all workplaces, bars, and restaurants only in 2004, but 100 cities and towns in the state had rules on tobacco at work sites, including restaurants, before the law went into e/ect. The teens were followed for four years: about 9 per cent became smokers, de¢ned as smoking more than 100 cigarettes. In towns without bans, that rate was nearly 10 per cent. But in places with bans, just under 8 per cent of the teens became smokers. A. Salomons ( CES, KU Leuven) D0E29 L10 2 £ 53 From this morning&s paper The newspaper provides no information about the paper&s methodology. What technique should the study use in order to convince you that a smoking ban indeed discourages teens to start smoking? A. Salomons ( CES, KU Leuven) D0E29 L10 3 ¢ 53 From this morning&s paper The newspaper provides no information about the paper&s methodology. What technique should the study use in order to convince you that a smoking ban indeed discourages teens to start smoking? The study should use a di/erence-in-di/erence methodology and not a cross-section, since the cross-section does not control for town ¡xed e/ects. Di/erence-in-di/erence would mean that the researchers looked at which percentage of teens became smokers in each town before any bans were imposed, compare that to which percentage of teens became smokers between 2001-2004, and take the di/erence within each town and then between towns. A. Salomons ( CES, KU Leuven) D0E29 L10 3 ¢ 53 From this morning&s paper Since a cross-section does not control for town ¡xed e/ects, the e/ect of the smoking ban may be over- or underestimated. The reason for this is that the ban may be endogenous to the likelihood that teens start smoking. A. Salomons ( CES, KU Leuven) D0E29 L10 4 ¢ 53 From this morning&s paper Since a cross-section does not control for town ¡xed e/ects, the e/ect of the smoking ban may be over- or underestimated. The reason for this is that the ban may be endogenous to the likelihood that teens start smoking. Overestimation: if the smoking ban was enforced in those towns where teens are already less likely to start smoking....
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D0E29 L10 - D0E29 - Theory of Economic Growth Lecture 10...

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