POL les Rural Transition (china-russia-cee)

POL les Rural Transition (china-russia-cee) -...

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Economische Hervormingen  en Effecten   Een vergelijkende analyse van rurale  transitie in China, Rusland, en Oost-Europa     Prof. J. SWINNEN  CURSUS Problemen van de ontwikkelingslanden
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DECLINE AND GROWTH  DURING TRANSITION Wide difference in performance  Between countries (China vs Russia) Over time (initial effects vs second stage) Three ‘extreme’ patterns of transition “CENTRAL EUROPE” (Hungary, Czech,  Slovakia) “RUSSIA” (Russia, Belarus, Ukraine) “CHINA” (China, Vietnam)
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Agricultural OUTPUT  First 10 years of transition 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Years after start reform Agricultural Output China Central Europe Russia
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Agric Labour PRODUCTIVITY  60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Years after start reform Labour Productivity China Central Europe Russia
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RUSSIA 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Years after start reform GAO and ALP index GAO Russia ALP Russia
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CENTRAL EUROPE 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Years after start reform GAO and ALP index GAO CEEC ALP CEEC
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CHINA 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Years after start reform GAO and ALP index GAO China ALP China
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The Question  “Is remarkable growth in China  due to better policies than in  Russia or Central Europe, or  due to differences in initial  conditions ?”
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Causes of Decline and Growth:  Reforms or Initial Conditions ? Synthesis of results of several studies : Performance is affected both by  REFORM POLICIES and by INITIAL  CONDITIONS : The IMPACT of the reforms is conditional  upon initial conditions The CHOICE of the policies and reforms is  affected by initial conditions (endogeneity)
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Interaction of initial conditions  and reform policies:  An example Terms of trade changes result from  price and subsidy policy REFORM, but  EFFECT of this reform depends on the  INITIAL CONDITIONS (subsidy vs. tax)
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INITIAL CONDITIONS REFORM POLICIES Initial price distortions Land ownership Labourintensity Structure Economy Income Farm Structure Price and Trade Liberalisation Privatisation/Land Reform Transformation Policies POLICY OUTCOMES Terms of Trade Effects Farm Structure Property Rights Liberalisation Overall Economy ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
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INITIAL CONDITIONS C-EUR RUS CHI GNP/capita PPP 6923 4787 890 Share of agr. in employment (%) 13 17 63 Agric. labor intensity 0.19 0.13 2.26 Legal land ownership Individuals/ collective state state Share of CMEA export in GDP 0.10 0.28 0.03 Years under central planning 42 73 36
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Initial Conditions :  pre-reform DEVELOPMENT (PC 1)  pre-reform DISTORTIONS (PC 2) Be Vn Ch Al Ro Bu Hu Sn Cz Po Sk Ta Uz Tu Az Mol Ge Ky Mon Uk Ru La Li Ka Ar Es -6 3 Index of pre-reform distortions (PC2) Index of pre-reform development (-PC1)
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Agricultural output and labor  productivity changes after 5 years Li Uk Bu Ru Ka La Az Mol Ta Be Ky Ar Mon Ro Po Sn Ge Es Sk Cz Hu Uz Tu
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POL les Rural Transition (china-russia-cee) -...

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