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inaug - There are three types of lies lies damned lies and...

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There are three types of lies — lies, damned lies and statistics
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Benjamin Disraeli I British prime minister (Tory).
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William Gladstone I Defeated Disraeli in the general election of 1868. I President of the Royal Statistical Society 1867-1869.
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Another Disraeli quote . . . That question is this: Is man an ape or an angel? I, my lord, I am on the side of the angels. I repudiate with indignation and abhorrence those new fangled theories. (Oxford Diocesan Conference 25/11/1864)
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A rational approach to uncertainty? 1850 1900 1950 2000 -0.6 -0.2 0.2 Global temperature year Temperature anomaly (C) 1850 1900 1950 2000 250 300 350 400 Atmospheric C02 year CO2 (PPM)
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Absorption spectra
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Is abstraction the problem?
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Baker & Bellis, 1993, Animal Behaviour count 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 100 300 500 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 prop.partner 100 200 300 400 500 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 40 80 120 160 time.ipc
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The Baker and Bellis Analysis 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 100 300 500 prop.partner count 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 -200 0 200 prop.partner count 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 -200 0 200 prop.partner count 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 -200 0 200 prop.partner count 40 80 120 160 -300 -100 100 time.ipc rsd 40 80 120 160 -200 0 200 time.ipc count 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 -200 0 200 prop.partner rsd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 -200 0 200 prop.partner count
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Baker and Bellis Conclusions I At the end of the process they asked whether the apparent straight line relationships were stronger than could plausibly have arisen by chance. I On this basis they concluded that there is evidence for count declining with proportion of time spent together. I Time since last copulation seemed not to play a detectable role. I But they also collected another dataset . ..
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count 20 24 28 52 56 60 64 165 175 185 10 15 20 25 30 100 400 20 24 28 f.age f.height 155 170 52 58 64 f.weight m.age 20 30 40 165 180 m.height m.weight 60 80 100 300 500 10 20 30 155 165 175 20 30 40 60 70 80 90 m.vol
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More conclusions. . . I Going through the same process as with the first data set, leads to the conclusion that only female weight is linearly related to count.
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