Kruger Warming 2008

Kruger Warming 2008 - Physiological Underpinning s of...

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Physiological Underpinning s of Forest Response to Climate Change
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Mean surface temperature will rise 1-3 o C by the year 2100 Forecasted changes in climate: Warming will be most pronounced at higher latitudes (3-6 o C increase) Concomitant increase in mean annual precipitation, but large regional variation
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Recent trends in climate: Global mean for surface temperature has risen by > 0.7 o C since the late 1800s. Largest increases have occurred between 40 o N and 70 o N
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Recent and predicted future trends in atmospheric chemistry: CO 2 concentration has increased by ~30% in the last 150 years CO 2 concentration will likely double by the year 2100
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So how might forests respond to anticipated climate warming? Increase in summer T o maxima & minima? Increase in winter T o maxima & minima? Increase in length of growing season? Combination of the above? Depends on how warming is manifested
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What do we mean by “forest response?” Altered cycling of carbon, water & nutrients Changes in biotic interactions Shifts in geographic distributions of species, ecosystems and biomes
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Historical Precedent: e.g., Illinois during the late Pleistocene
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Historical precedent: dramatic, climate-mediated migrations during early Holocene 11,000 BP Present 18,000 BP
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How do we know so much about the past?
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Pollen counts in sediment cores, from bogs, etc. How do we know so much about the past? Time
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Latest U.S. Forest Service Predictions: Based on climate output from Global Circulation Models Current species range modeled as function of climate and edaphic characteristics Species move to intersection of new climatic “comfort zone” and appropriate soils Warming and species distributions:
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distributions in North America Each 1 o C increase in average T
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Kruger Warming 2008 - Physiological Underpinning s of...

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