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Stochasticity podcast

# Stochasticity podcast - STOCHASTICITY PODCAST Two Laura...

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STOCHASTICITY PODCAST Two Laura Buxtons. Streaks in coin flips. Winning the lottery twice. Basketball streaks. Anne, dopamine, and gambling addiction. Monkey experiment. “Sloppy” genes. 1

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HOW TO QUANTIFY CHANCE? Jad and Robert are wowed by 7 heads in a row, talk to Jay Kohler. 7 heads or 7 tails in a row: (1 / 2) 7 < 1%. Soren says “to be fair, you need to tell him that you flipped the coin 100 times.” ”Somewhere in the 100 flips you got a run of 7? Probability is 1/6.” Jad and Robert were so focused on the seven in a row that they had forgotten about what Jay called “the background.” “When you pan out and take in the whole sample space an unusual event may not be so improbable.” 2
Probability (percent) of longest streak out of 100 and first flips streak First flips Longest streak Streak Length Length length Exact or greater Exact or greater 1 50.000 100.00 0.03 100.00 2 25.000 50.000 2.79 99.972 3 12.500 25.000 16.50 97.145 4 6.250 12.500 26.45 80.661 5 3.125 6.250 22.72 54.154 6 1.563 3.125 14.61 31.394 7 0.781 1.563 8.20 16.849 8 0.391 0.781 4.29 8.656 9 0.195 0.391 2.19 4.340 10 0.098 0.195 1.10 2.167 11 0.049 0.098 0.54 1.084 12 0.024 0.049 0.27 0.534 13 0.012 0.024 0.13 0.265 14 0.006 0.012 0.066 0.130

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Stochasticity podcast - STOCHASTICITY PODCAST Two Laura...

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