Stochasticity podcast

Stochasticity podcast - STOCHASTICITY PODCAST Two Laura...

Info iconThis preview shows pages 1–4. Sign up to view the full content.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon
This is the end of the preview. Sign up to access the rest of the document.

Unformatted text preview: STOCHASTICITY PODCAST Two Laura Buxtons. Streaks in coin flips. Winning the lottery twice. Basketball streaks. Anne, dopamine, and gambling addiction. Monkey experiment. Sloppy genes. 1 HOW TO QUANTIFY CHANCE? Jad and Robert are wowed by 7 heads in a row, talk to Jay Kohler. 7 heads or 7 tails in a row: (1 / 2) 7 < 1%. Soren says to be fair, you need to tell him that you flipped the coin 100 times. Somewhere in the 100 flips you got a run of 7? Probability is 1/6. Jad and Robert were so focused on the seven in a row that they had forgotten about what Jay called the background. When you pan out and take in the whole sample space an unusual event may not be so improbable. 2 Probability (percent) of longest streak out of 100 and first flips streak First flips Longest streak Streak Length Length length Exact or greater Exact or greater 1 50.000 100.00 0.03 100.00 2 25.000 50.000 2.79 99.972 3 12.500 25.000 16.5016....
View Full Document

This note was uploaded on 03/27/2010 for the course HP 340L at USC.

Page1 / 6

Stochasticity podcast - STOCHASTICITY PODCAST Two Laura...

This preview shows document pages 1 - 4. Sign up to view the full document.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
Ask a homework question - tutors are online