Specimen_exam_paper1[1] - Introduction to Value Tree...

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1 SPECIMEN DECISION ANALYSIS EXAMINATION 1 Time allowed: 2 hours Answer any THREE questions from the five questions supplied.
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2 Question 1 The board of directors of Tolford sports club are searching for a location for their new stadium and they are using the Simple Multi-attribute Rating Technique (SMART) to help them with their decision. Five possible sites are being considered and the decision between them will be based on five attributes: i) the COST of developing the site, ii) the DISTANCE of the site from downtown Tolford, iii) the amount of space for car PARKING, iv) the extent to which choosing the site would cause inconvenience for local RESIDENTS and (v) the ACCESSIBILITY of the site from the highway network. The board has assigned scores for each site to measure its performance on the non- monetary attributes. These are shown below, together with the development costs of the sites (note that 0 is the score for the worst site on a given attribute and 100 a score for the best site on that attribute). Site DISTANCE PARKING RESIDENTS ACCESSIBILITY COST ($m) Egbert Heath 10 100 70 50 80 Lakeside 40 80 100 100 65 Jones Street 60 10 0 0 30 The Causeway 0 60 40 60 100 Hodge Street 100 0 20 10 75 The board then considered a hypothetical site that had the worst performance on all the non-monetary attributes. They were then asked, if they could make just one improvement to this site so that it was as good as the best site on this attribute, which improvement would they make? They agreed that they would most prefer to ‘improve’ the DISTANCE from downtown Tolford. Similar improvements in relation to the attributes PARKING, RESIDENTS and ACCESSIBILITY were thought to be, respectively, 30%, 55% and 15% as important as this. It can be assumed that the attributes are mutually preference independent. a) The aggregate scores of the first four sites in the above table for the non-monetary attributes are shown below: Site Aggregate score Egbert Heath 43.0 Lakeside 67.0 Jones Street 31.5 The Causeway 24.5 Calculate the score for the Hodge Street site. (25% of marks on question) b) Determine the sites which lie on the efficient frontier, when the development costs are brought into consideration, and explain how you arrived at your answer.
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