SimRisk2003 - SimRisk 2003 A software aid for simulation...

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SimRisk 2003 A software aid for simulation User’s Guide www.tushar-mehta.com Copyright © 2003 Tushar Mehta
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Page 3 of 27 1. Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 5 1.1 Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................ 5 1.2 Authorization: Terms of Use ........................................................................................... 5 1.3 Software and hardware requirements .............................................................................. 5 2. Installation ............................................................................................................................... 6 2.1 Do I have to read this Installation stuff? .......................................................................... 6 2.2 OK, so I don’t see Simulate How do I install the software? ....................................... 6 2.3 I’m done with SimRisk 2003. How do I get rid of it? .................................................... 7 3. An example .............................................................................................................................. 7 4. Creating a simulation spreadsheet model ................................................................................ 7 5. Running a Simulation ............................................................................................................ 10 5.1 The SimRisk 2003... dialog ............................................................................................ 10 5.1.1 Selecting the result cell(s) ...................................................................................... 11 5.1.2 The GUESS button ................................................................................................ 11 5.1.3 Picking a sample size ............................................................................................. 11 5.1.4 Report Location ..................................................................................................... 11 5.1.5 Update screen ......................................................................................................... 11 5.1.6 The ‘OK,’ ‘Cancel,’ and ‘Help’ buttons ................................................................ 12 5.1.7 The ‘More’ (or ‘Less’) button ................................................................................ 12 5.1.8 Keep unanalyzed data ............................................................................................ 12 5.1.9 User specified seed ................................................................................................ 13 5.1.10 Running a user written macro ................................................................................ 13 6. The Simulation Result ........................................................................................................... 13 6.1 The result sheet .............................................................................................................. 13 6.2 Identifying the result cell(s) ........................................................................................... 13 6.3 Analysis of multiple result cells ..................................................................................... 15 6.4 Simulation Statistics ...................................................................................................... 15 6.5 Descriptive statistics ...................................................................................................... 15 6.6 Histogram ....................................................................................................................... 15 6.7 The cumulative density function .................................................................................... 15 6.8 The (raw) sample data and intermediate information .................................................... 15 7. Post simulation capability ...................................................................................................... 16 8. Available Random Number Generators ................................................................................. 16 8.1 ‘Standard’ distributions .................................................................................................. 16 8.2 Custom distributions ...................................................................................................... 17 9. Advanced Features ................................................................................................................. 21 9.1 Array Formulas .............................................................................................................. 21 9.2 The GUESS feature ........................................................................................................ 22 9.3 Keep unanalyzed data .................................................................................................... 22 9.4 User specified seed ........................................................................................................ 23 9.5 User written macro ......................................................................................................... 23 9.5.1 Running an optimization during sampling ............................................................. 23 9.5.2 Using the results of the current iteration the next time around .............................. 24 9.5.3 Caveats ................................................................................................................... 24 9.5.3.1 Caveat 1 Error Protection .................................................................................. 24 9.5.3.2 Caveat 2 Excel file names .................................................................................. 24
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Page 4 of 27 9.5.3.3 Caveat 3 Simulation uses ‘volatile’ functions ................................................... 24 10. Limits and known problems ............................................................................................... 25 10.1 Maximum sample size ................................................................................................... 25 10.2 Moving a spreadsheet from one computer to another .................................................... 25 10.3 Deleting (or moving) worksheets on Windows 95 ........................................................ 26 10.4 Screenupdating and Office 97 (Excel 8.0a) ................................................................... 26 11. Copyright and License Agreement .................................................................................... 27 11.1 License Agreement ........................................................................................................ 27 11.2 Software License ............................................................................................................ 27 11.3 Limited Warranty ........................................................................................................... 27 12. Copyright Acknowledgments ............................................................................................ 27
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Page 5 of 27 1. Introduction The SimRisk 2003 software is an educational tool to introduce simulation concepts. The software adds a suite of random number generators to Excel’s built-in functions. After running a simulation, the software reports certain statistical attributes about the results, while preserving user access to the data gathered during the simulation. The software provides a simple and robust introduction to simulation. Simplicity and convenience, not efficiency, are major product attributes. SimRisk 2003 is the successor to SIMULATE2000. Consequently, some of the dialog boxes in this document may refer to Simulate 2000. However, all such references are equally applicable to SimRisk 2003 . 1.1 Acknowledgments In developing the software, I have benefited from discussions with various people, notably Professor Marshall Freimer at the Simon School of Business at the University of Rochester.
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