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Unformatted text preview: THE LONG TERM OUTLOOK FOR ALUMINIUM, 2008/09 EDITION A forecast to 2030 using the CRU Compass Model, including a set of smelter project profiles estimating costs for recent, probable and possible investments. www.cruanalysis.com Powered by the CRU Compass Model NORSK HYDRO THE LONG TERM OUTLOOK FOR ALUMINIUM, 2008/09 EDITION The independent and authoritative reference... This is a two-part service that consists of the following: 1) The Analysis Report The Long Term Outlook for Aluminium 2008/09 Edition The analysis report details CRUs expectation for aluminium prices until 2030. This forecast is based upon fundamental cost analysis using the CRU Compass Model. The long run marginal costs, short run marginal cost and short run avoidable cost are all calculated and published using this model. 2) Smelter Project Profiles The smelter cost profiles gives a cost breakdown and detailed set of notes for Greenfield and Brownfield smelter projects from around the globe. An electronic version of each profile is also provided on-line for easy data manipulation. CRUcial Features and Benefits Explores the new long term price of aluminium to 2030 publishing a price forecast on a year by year basis. Determines the new range for prices - the floor and ceiling prices that we will see during high and low points in a typical cycle. Examines the main risks to the forecast. Evaluates how much capacity is needed to meet trend growth in consumption and inventories. Details the economics of 100 smelter projects. Identifies the regions that will be magnets for smelting investment and details cost assumptions in each region used to drive the CRU Compass Model. New for 2008 Brand new scenario analysis using high and low demand macro cases and sensitivity analysis looking at the impact of global carbon emissions, liberalisation of the Russian power market and a world with continued high oil prices. A complete update and breakdown of the main cost algo- rithms used within the CRU Compass Model introducing new techniques for capturing capital cost escalation. Semis intensity of use sector analysis now extended to 2015 capturing the main drivers for key aluminium markets including packaging, construction and transportation. Analysis of the coal market and transport routes in China and potential impact on greenfield smelter growth in the forecast. All commodity forecasts used in the forecast published an- nually, until 2012 and trends published thereafter. Conference call facility with playback recording introduced and 12 pages executive summary update of report to be published in March 2009....
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This note was uploaded on 04/02/2010 for the course ECONOMICS ECO204 taught by Professor Hassian during the Spring '08 term at University of Toronto- Toronto.
- Spring '08