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lect_1_karr_sust_soc_2009 - Reality Check 1883...

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Reality Check - 1883 International Fisheries Exhibition44 “Any tendency to over-fishing will meet with its natural check in the diminution of the supply, . . . This check will always come into operation long before anything like permanent exhaustion has occurred.” In short, overfishing is an unscientific and erroneous fear. Thomas Henry Huxley
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Reality Check - 1930 “There is no risk that humanity could do real harm to anything so gigantic as the Earth.” Robert Millikan, American physicist and Nobel Prize winner Chlorofluorocarbons, the chemicals responsible for thinning the stratospheric ozone layer, were invented in 1930 by American chemical engineer Thomas Midgley.
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Reality Check - 1997 "For humans to cause species to become extinct and to destroy the biological diversity of God's creation, for humans to degrade the integrity of the Earth by causing changes in climate, stripping the Earth of its natural forests, or destroying its wetlands . . . these are sins." Bartholomew I, head of the Orthodox Church. 1997 The generation that produced the environmental movement . . . is attempting to indoctrinate the next generation in its anti-technological and anti-progressive creed. Gary Bauer, US presidential candidate, 1996
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Attaining a Sustainable Society ENVIR/FISH 439; PBAF 595 Lecture 1 Dissecting the Premise: Drivers and Consequences for the 21 st Century James R. Karr University of Washington Spring 2009
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The Premise Building a sustainable future depends on (1) major shifts in human reproductive and consumptive behavior, (2) restructuring the global economy, and (3) dramatic changes in values and lifestyles. If we do not accomplish this restructuring within the next three to five decades, (A) environmental deterioration and (B) economic growth are likely to feed on each other, pulling us into a downward spiral of (C) social disintegration.
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The Premise Building a sustainable future
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Dimensions of Sustainable Society ! Ecological health ! natural capital; goods and services from nature ! PROTECT LIVING SYSTEMS ! Social well-being ! human and moral capital ! equity and social justice ! balance community and individual rights ! Economic vitality ! human-made capital ! increase efficiency rather than throughput ! What are the relationships among them?
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Environment Economy Society X What do you think about this figure? Mini-lecture in 4 weeks
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The Premise Building a sustainable future depends on (1) major shifts in human reproductive behavior ,
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Mini-lecture in 3 weeks
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Human Population Growth ?? 2020 AD 4.0 1975 AD 2.0 1930 AD 1.0 1850 AD 0.5 1650 AD 0.005 8000 BC DOUBLING (yrs) Population (billions) TIME 1500 200 80 45 ??
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Humans ! One of ~ 10 million species on Earth ! Current population nearly 6.8 billion humans ! perhaps 10 billion by 2050 ! By far most “successful” species in history: ! rapidly expanding population ! extensive geographic area occupied !
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