science_oct_2009_repro_number_longhini - The...

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DOI: 10.1126/science.1177373 , 729 (2009); 326 Science et al. Yang Yang, Influenza A (H1N1) Virus The Transmissibility and Control of Pandemic (this information is current as of December 24, 2009 ): The following resources related to this article are available online at version of this article at: including high-resolution figures, can be found in the online Updated information and services, can be found at: Supporting Online Material , 10 of which can be accessed for free: cites 23 articles This article 3 articles hosted by HighWire Press; see: cited by This article has been Virology Epidemiology : subject collections This article appears in the following in whole or in part can be found at: this article permission to reproduce of this article or about obtaining reprints Information about obtaining registered trademark of AAAS. is a Science 2009 by the American Association for the Advancement of Science; all rights reserved. The title Copyright American Association for the Advancement of Science, 1200 New York Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20005. (print ISSN 0036-8075; online ISSN 1095-9203) is published weekly, except the last week in December, by the Science on December 24, 2009 Downloaded from
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The Transmissibility and Control of Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) Virus Yang Yang, 1 Jonathan D. Sugimoto, 1,2 M. Elizabeth Halloran, 1,3 Nicole E. Basta, 1,2 Dennis L. Chao, 1 Laura Matrajt, 4 Gail Potter, 5 Eben Kenah, 1,3,6 Ira M. Longini Jr. 1,3 * Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 (pandemic H1N1) is spreading throughout the planet. It has become the dominant strain in the Southern Hemisphere, where the influenza season has now ended. Here, on the basis of reported case clusters in the United States, we estimated the household secondary attack rate for pandemic H1N1 to be 27.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) from 12.2% to 50.5%]. From a school outbreak, we estimated that a typical schoolchild infects 2.4 (95% CI from 1.8 to 3.2) other children within the school. We estimated the basic reproductive number, R 0 ,torangef rom 1.3 to 1.7 and the generation interval to range from 2.6 to 3.2 days. We used a simulation model to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccination strategies in the United States for fall 2009. If a vaccine were available soon enough, vaccination of children, followed by adults, reaching 70% overall coverage, in addition to high-risk and essential workforce groups, could mitigate a severe epidemic. P andemic H1N1, which first emerged in Mexico in April 2009, had spread world- wide, resulting in more than 130,000 laboratory-confirmed cases and 800 deaths in over 100 countries, by mid-July ( 1 ). The global distribution of this novel strain prompted the World Health Organization to declare the first influenza pandemic of the 21st century in June 2009 ( 2 ). Initially, most cases were clustered in
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This note was uploaded on 04/05/2010 for the course UCONJ 445 taught by Professor Beaton during the Winter '10 term at University of Washington.

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science_oct_2009_repro_number_longhini - The...

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