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19.Malthus_cont__10[1]

19.Malthus_cont__10[1] - Lecture 19 Malthus Ronald Lee...

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Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2010 1 Lecture 19. Malthus Ronald Lee Econ/Demog 175 March 30, 2010
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Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2010 2 Announcement Exams will be returned at end of class. Must be picked up in person! Alternatively, the MT can be picked up in person at the main office in Demography on the first floor to the left of the door. Answers will be on bSpace under Midterm Resources.
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Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2010 3 More Announcements No sections this week or next week. PS4 is due on Thursday, 4/1 2:10pm. Catherine's students have been reassigned to new paper mentors. Please see bSpace <Paper resources>: "Term paper graders". New GSI/paper mentor OH contact info and OH times/locations are posted on bSpace.
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Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2010 4 Readings for Thursday Ronald Lee (1980) “An Historical Perspective…” in your reader: pp.344- 350. Ester Boserup (1981) Population and Technological Change , in your reader: pp.350-365.
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Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2010 5 Your exams The grading has been done very carefully using consistent rules for deducting and awarding points. Same person has graded all answers to a question. Some people will notice that their numerical scores fall just below the cutoff for getting a higher letter grade. This is unfortunate, but that’s the way it is. Chances are you will benefit from this same phenomenon in some other aspect of the grading for the class.
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Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2010 6 Your exam (cont.) When final grades are assigned at end of term we will look for cases in which conversion to letter grades significantly altered the final grade outcome and adjust as appropriate. When final grades are assigned we also look for big improvements on the final exam compared to MT, and may weight the final more heavily in a few such cases.
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Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2010 7 Plan for today Malthusian theory: Comparative Statics (demand for labor: Iron Law of Wages) Thinking about Malthusian theory Malthus, policy and politics Was Malthus right? Why is the population the size it is? Boserup theory End lecture five minutes early to return exams.
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Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2010 8 Something like arguments made today, and in the 1990s regarding the case for welfare reform.
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Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2010 9 Now what happens when new technology or new land makes labor more productive? The curve relating wages to population size shifts up and out. At any given population size, the marginal product of labor is now higher. Consequently, the wage will be higher at any given population size. What could do this? Introduction of a new crop like the potato (again, from globalization) which yielded more calories per acre than wheat. Draining of swamps, conversion to agric land Conquest of new territories Green Revolution: development of new plant varieties that are more responsive to irrigation and fertilizer, raising agric yields in recent decades.
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Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2010 10
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Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2010 11 A shift in the demand for labor d(w) Mortality (crude death rate) w = real wage Demog events per person b(w) Fertility (crude birth rate w* w = real wage w* Pop size P*
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