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are found in the literature. In Figure 6, an expanded government-public model is proposed to
address this issue.
The expanded government-public model presented in Figure 6 reveals the presence of two
elements that the literature describes as important drivers of the dynamics of trust in government:
memory of outcomes and expectations of outcomes (Bhattacharya et al., 1998; Chanley, 2002;
Pinker, 2007). This expanded model captures the influence that the memory of outcomes and the
expectations of outcomes have on the perception of outcomes and on the level of the decision
threshold of both the government and the public.
In the government-public model, the determination of the level of the decision threshold is posed
solely as a function of the perception of outcomes. In the expanded model, first we expand this
conceptualization to include the effect that the memory of perceived outcomes has on the
determination of the decision threshold (see Loop L4p and L4p in Figure 6). We propose that
perceived outcomes are accumulated in a memory of perceived outcomes that also influence the
determination of the threshold. In this expanded theory, individuals making decisions related to
the appropriateness of the level of the decision threshold consider not only what they were able to
identify happened recently in terms of outcomes (perception of outcomes) but also what they can
remember about the outcomes over a longer period of time (memory of perceived outcomes).
Incorporating memory into the calculation of new decision thresholds is consistent with
reinforcement learning theories (Camerer et al., 1999; Erev et al., 1995) and with the psychology 10 of attention and memory (Atkinson and Shiffrin, 1968; Goldstein, 2005; Goldstein and Hogarth,
1997), which describes the link as being present and, in some cases, critical to explaining the
changes observed. This new conceptualization that includes a memory component allows the
theory to capture several different types of actors, from those having an extremely poor memory
(individual or organizational) to those having an excellent memory, who would no...
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