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Unformatted text preview: nd Pugh,
1981; Sterman, 2000) to create a feedback-rich view of the dynamic influence of trust in
government in government actions and outcomes and of the dynamic drivers of trust in
government (see Figure 4). In the model, we use concepts and constructs of social judgment
theory (Brunswik, 1943, 1956; Hammond, 1996; Hammond, 2007; Hammond, McClelland, and
Mumpower, 1980) and signal detection theory (Green and Swets, 1966; Swets, 1973) to
characterize the judgment and decision-making processes that the public can use to determine its
level of trust in government in a dynamic way. In addition, we use appropriate insights from the
system dynamics literature to model and characterize the processes of perception and of
expectation formation. Lastly, in modeling the perception process, we also draw on concepts from
the cognitive psychology literature (Goldstein, 2005). 3 Emphasis in the original. 4 We gradually present our model of trust in government by starting with a simple governmentcentric model of government actions and results and elaborating from there to our final bilateral
trust model. The first model discussed, the government-centric model shown in Figure 4, captures
the way in which the government assesses a given situation, acts accordingly, and updates the
conditions for future action as a function of the results experienced.
In this model, we characterize the process of assessing a given situation as a judgment process
taken prior to the decision-making process that leads to action. To model the judgment process,
we use elements from the social judgment theory literature; specifically, a variation of the lens
model proposed in the Brusnwikian tradition (for details, see Brunswik, 1943, 1956; Hammond,
1996; Hammond and Stewart, 2001).
The lens model of judgment captures the relationship between the mental process of judgment
and environmental information cues by using a linear additive combination of the latter that has
been empirically identified as a robust characterization of human judgment processes (St...
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