Poly%206-7 - Poly Lecture 6 Data Mining Ethics Luck v/s...

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Poly Lecture 6 Data Mining Ethics
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2 Luck v/s Skills: All So Easy
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3 The Round Trip Fallacy Mistaking the necessary and the causal Successful Wear a suit Wear a suit Successful
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Nonsense?
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How data can be bad for you Year 1: 1 million Year 2: 500,000 Year 3: 250,000 Year 4: 125,000 Year 5: 62,500 Year 6: 31,250 Year 11 about 1000 geniuses …just by luck (gamblers/investors/traders/monkeys/predictors)
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Ioannidis
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Fitting explanations "He works long hours“ “He works short (but intense) hours” "He worked with X" "She comes early to the office" "She works late...The other day I called her at the office at 8 PM; she was there!" “He does yoga” "He follows a strict low-carb vegetarian diet"
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Artificial population attributes People in the experiment were successful by pure luck If the base population is large enough it is near impossible to NOT have a superstar The problem here is with the size of the base population This is called (among other names) the survivorship bias Little to do with the odds
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Hell; It’s the Others (Sartre) The trader’s nightmare is not at all her own P/L It is one’s bad luck It is the good luck of the others Elementary simulation: under some conditions (ex ante “Sharpe” 1, maximum drawdown -20%) What is the 5-year survival rate? How does it compare to known diseases?
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Results Year 1 79% Year 2 60% Year 3 45% Year 4 35% Year 5 26%
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Distribution You observe the Max {x1,…,xn} This matters more…
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Random Matrices 0.08 MAX .
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