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STA2020F 2006 TEST 3

# STA2020F 2006 TEST 3 - STA2020F Class Test 3 Date 24th May...

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STA2020F Class Test 3 Date: 24 th May 2006 Time: 1 hour 30 minutes Total marks: 50 Instructions: Answer all the questions in your blue answer book. A formula sheet and the relevant statistical tables are provided at the end of this test paper. Negative marking in effect. Mark of -0.5 for every wrong answer, 0 for no answer and 2 marks for a correct answer. The next 6 questions refer to the following problem setting: The following data refers to the monthly sales of Jackets (in R1 000) for a particular clothing store. Jan-04 45 Jan-05 46 Feb-04 42 Feb-05 41 Mar-04 43 Mar-05 43 Apr-04 44 Apr-05 47 May-04 50 May-05 51 Jun-04 56 Jun-05 56 Jul-04 64 Jul-05 67 Aug-04 60 Aug-05 62 Sep-04 58 Sep-05 61 Oct-04 53 Oct-05 50 Nov-04 49 Nov-05 49 Dec-04 47 Dec-05 46 To test if there was trend in the series a monthly regression was performed with time being the independent variable (where t=1 for Jan-04). The resulting model was outputted: Y-hat = 48.02 + 0.26t The standard error of the time co-efficient was given as 0.11. 1) If you were to model the time series using the components of a time series, which components would you expect to find? a) Error only b) Trend only c) Trend, Seasonality and error only d) Trend and Seasonality only e) Seasonality and error only 2) Which of the following is the correct value for the MA(6) smoothed average for Nov-04 ?

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3) It was decided to forecast the sales of jackets. Which of the following is the MA(3) forecast for Jan-06? 4) Which of the following is the exponential smoothed forecast (w = 0.3) for Apr-04? 5) Which of the following is true with regard to trend in the series? a) There is insignificant trend at the 10% level b) There is a trend, as the coefficient of time is positive indicating a time trend c) There is a significant trend at the 5% level d) 0.26<1.318, therefore there is a significant trend e) Not possible to tell from the information given 6) If the seasonal index for Jan-March is 0.866, which of the following is the value for the Trend Equation with Seasonal index forecast for Jan-06?

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STA2020F 2006 TEST 3 - STA2020F Class Test 3 Date 24th May...

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