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AMS 311, Examination 1, Spring 2007
February 16, 2007
Name:
ID:
Instructions: You may use one 8½” by 11” sheet of notes and an approved calculator in
the examination provided that you permit the proctor to inspect it during the examination.
Any tables and graphs that are needed to solve problems will be provided. You may not
use any other assistance during the examination. There are five problems worth a total of
100 points.
1.
The probability that a randomly selected individual has a specified medical
condition is 0.10.
A screening test for this condition has sensitivity 0.99. That is,
the probability that an affected individual tests positive is 0.99.
The specificity of
the procedure is 0.98. That is, the probability that an individual not affected tests
negative is 0.98.
What is the probability that the screening test will produce a true
positive reading?
That is, given that the results of the test are positive, what is the
probability that the individual has the condition? (20 points)
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