International_nbsp_Chart_nbsp_Pack

International_nbsp_Chart_nbsp_Pack - W eekly chart Daily...

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Unformatted text preview: W eekly chart Daily chart International Chart Pack Monday, 2 February 2004 • Out of the S&P 500 stocks that we track we found 92% (92%) in the long-term momentum bull phase. For the medium-term we count 57% (57%) in the bull phase. The shortterm figure is 37% (40%) bullish. The short-term correction for the major stock market indices is still in place - now in Europe as well. Nevertheless, it seems to be like a pullback within an orderly strong uptrend. Bond future started the rebound as expected. Sell further if support levels break. US dollar / Swiss franc is forming a ascending triangle. Add to position if 1.2660 and 1.2730 can be cleared. Sell signal is given below 1.2350. • • Hourly chart USD/CHF (daily bar chart) 2% >55-day moving average 1.35 1.30 55-day moving average 1.25 1.20 Bullish Bearish Bearish Bullish Bullish Bearish Bearish Bearish Leading indicator 500 0 -500 Short-term momentum (shaded) 18 25 1 8 15 September 22 29 6 13 October 20 27 3 10 17 November 24 Medium-term momentum 1 8 15 December 22 29 5 12 2004 19 26 2 9 16 February -1000 V www.credit-suisse.com/techresearch 02.02.2004 | International Chart Pack | Credit Suisse Private Banking 1 USA - S & P 500 Index (.SPX) W eekly chart Daily chart ì 1350 1300 1250 1200 1150 1100 1050 1000 950 900 850 800 750 2000 1000 0 -1000 -2000 -3000 -4000 è 1150 1100 1050 1000 950 900 1000 500 0 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004 Feb Mar 2002 2003 2004 Hourly chart Resistance: 1135/39, 1143*, 1155, 1160*, 1167, 1175, 1195**, 1255** Still within a steep daily uptrend. A break above 1136 will support a rebound. Shortterm downgrade to DOWN if 1126 breaks. BUY 5 1160 1150 1140 1130 3 4 SELL 1120 1110 1100 1090 1080 1070 1060 1050 1 2 Support: 1127, 1122, 1115, 1109*, 1099*, 1093*, 1081*, 1075** 1040 1030 1020 400 300 200 100 0 -100 3 10 November 17 24 1 8 December 15 22 29 5 2004 12 20 26 11 February 02.02.2004 | International Chart Pack | Credit Suisse Private Banking 2 USA - Nasdaq 100 Index (.NDX) W eekly chart Daily chart ì 2500 2000 è 1550 1500 1450 1400 1500 1350 1300 1250 1000 1200 1150 1100 2000 0 1500 1000 500 0 -5000 2002 2003 2004 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004 Feb Mar Hourly chart Resistance: 1507, 1517*, 1527**, 1540*, 1555/60, 1575*, 1589*, 1600, 1685* BUY 1550 1500 SELL 1450 Still possible to retest 1517 resistance but a fall below 1470 is a weak sign. Short-term arrow will change to DOWN below 1485. Support: 1485, 1475*, 1465, 1455*, 1444**, 1433, 1400 1350 500 0 3 10 November 17 24 1 8 December 15 22 29 5 2004 12 20 26 11 February 02.02.2004 | International Chart Pack | Credit Suisse Private Banking 3 US Stock Market Indices W eekly chart Daily chart DJI30 10500 Daily chart Daily chart NYGeneral 6700 6600 6500 6400 6300 6200 6100 6000 5900 5800 5700 5600 5500 5400 5300 5200 5100 1500 10000 9500 9000 8500 1000 1000 500 0 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004 Feb Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004 Feb Mar 500 0 Hourly chart Daily chart Biotech 800 Daily chart Semiconductor 550 750 500 700 450 650 400 600 350 3000 3000 2000 1000 0 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004 Feb Mar Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004 Feb Mar 2000 1000 0 02.02.2004 | International Chart Pack | Credit Suisse Private Banking 4 Europe - Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 Index (.STOXX50E) W eekly chart Daily chart ì 4500 4000 3500 3000 dè 2950 2900 2850 2800 2750 2700 2650 2600 2550 2500 2450 2400 2350 2300 2500 2000 1000 0 -1000 -2000 -3000 -4000 -5000 2002 2003 2004 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004 Feb 1000 500 0 -500 Hourly chart Resistance: 2865, 2885*, 2900, 2910, 2940*, 2990, 3090**, 3160 BUY 2920 2900 2860 2840 2800 2780 2740 2700 SELL SELL The accelerated trendline is broken to the downside. Short-term downgraded to arrow FLAT with break of 2855. Short-term downgrade to DOWN if 2830 fails to hold. Support: 2820, 2815, 2770/60*, 2735, 2720* 2670**, 2640* 2660 2640 2600 2580 2540 2520 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 24 1 8 December 15 22 29 5 2004 12 19 26 1 February 02.02.2004 | International Chart Pack | Credit Suisse Private Banking 5 Germany - Deutscher Aktien Index DAX (.GDAXI) W eekly chart Daily chart ì 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 dè 4200 4100 4000 3900 3800 3700 3600 3500 3400 3300 3200 3100 3000 2900 0 -5000 2002 2003 2004 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004 Feb 2000 1500 1000 500 0 -500 Mar Hourly chart Resistance: 4100, 4130*, 4145*, 4160, 4175, 4190/200**, 4230, 4285* BUY 4200 4150 4100 4050 4000 3950 3900 3850 3800 3750 3700 3650 3600 3550 3500 500 SELL SELL According to the daily chart the uptrend is still in place but sell again if 4035 breaks. Short-term downgraded to arrow FLAT with break of 4075. Short-term downgrade to DOWN if 4040 breaks. Support: 4035*, 4010*, 3980, 3920, 3900, 3870** 0 10 17 24 1 8 December 15 22 29 5 2004 12 19 26 1 February 02.02.2004 | International Chart Pack | Credit Suisse Private Banking 6 Switzerland - Swiss Market Index (.SSMI) W eekly chart Daily chart ì 7500 7000 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 1000 0 -1000 -2000 -3000 -4000 ì 5900 5800 5700 5600 5500 5400 5300 5200 5100 5000 4900 4800 4700 4600 4500 ? 1500 1000 500 0 -500 2002 2003 2004 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004 Feb Mar Hourly chart Resistance: 5770, 5790, 5810/25, 5860*, 5890/900, 5950, 6012** BUY 5850 5800 5750 5700 5650 5600 5550 5500 5450 5400 5350 5300 5250 5200 5150 5100 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 10 November 17 24 1 8 December 15 22 29 5 2004 12 19 26 1 February SELL Steep uptrend is place but the momentum pattern is weakening. Short-term downgrade to FLAT if 5730 fails to hold. Short-term downgrade to DOWN if 5690 breaks. Support: 5730, 5710, 5690, 5640**, 5625*, 5590*, 5570, 5520, 5480* 02.02.2004 | International Chart Pack | Credit Suisse Private Banking 7 Other European Stock Market Indices W eekly chart Daily chart UK-FTSE100 4550 4500 4450 4400 4350 4300 4250 4200 4150 4100 4050 4000 3950 3900 3850 Daily chart Daily chart France-CAC40 3750 3700 3650 3600 3550 3500 3450 3400 3350 3300 3250 3200 3150 3100 3050 3000 2950 2900 1500 1000 500 500 0 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004 Feb Mar Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004 Feb Mar 0 -500 Hourly chart Daily chart Italy-MIB30 28500 28000 27500 27000 26500 26000 25500 25000 24500 24000 1000 500 0 Daily chart Russia-RTX 1150 1100 1050 1000 950 900 850 800 750 700 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 -1000 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004 Feb Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004 02.02.2004 | International Chart Pack | Credit Suisse Private Banking 8 Japan - Nikkei 225 Index (.N225) W eekly chart Daily chart ì 17000 16000 15000 14000 13000 12000 11000 10000 9000 ì 11000 10500 10000 9500 9000 8000 8500 2000 1000 0 -1000 -2000 -3000 -4000 -5000 2002 2003 2004 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004 Feb Mar 3000 2000 1000 0 Hourly chart Resistance: 10870, 10930, 10990**, 11150, 11200/240, 11300*, 11390*, 11560 BUY Still in consolidation. Short-term downgrade to arrow FLAT if 10750 breaks on closing basis. Short-term DOWN if 10550 breaks. 11300 11200 11100 11000 10900 10800 10700 10600 10500 10400 10300 10200 10100 10000 9900 9800 9700 9600 SELL Support: 10660, 10630/20*, 10430*, 10340*, 10240*, 10090* 500 0 -500 -1000 14 October 20 27 4 10 November 17 25 1 8 December 15 22 29 13 2004 19 26 2 February 02.02.2004 | International Chart Pack | Credit Suisse Private Banking 9 Other Asian Stock Market Indices W eekly chart Daily chart Hong Kong 14000 13500 13000 12500 12000 11500 11000 10500 10000 9500 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Daily chart Daily chart Singapore 1900 1850 1800 1750 1700 1650 1600 1550 1500 1450 1400 1350 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 -500 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004 Feb Mar Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004 Feb Mar Hourly chart Daily chart Australia 3350 3300 3250 3200 3150 3100 3050 Daily chart China 1650 1600 1550 1500 1450 1400 3000 2950 2900 1000 500 0 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004 1350 1300 1500 1000 500 0 -500 -1000 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004 Mar 02.02.2004 | International Chart Pack | Credit Suisse Private Banking 10 US 10-year T-Notes March 2004 future (TYc1) W eekly chart Daily chart è 120 115 è 110 105 117.5 117.0 116.5 116.0 115.5 115.0 114.5 114.0 113.5 113.0 112.5 112.0 111.5 111.0 110.5 110.0 109.5 1000 500 0 -500 2002 2003 2004 0 -500 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004 Feb Mar Hourly chart Resistance: 113.80*, 114.10*, 114.35, 114.50**, 114.80, 115.10 BUY 115.0 114.5 114.0 SELL 113.5 113.0 112.5 Sell level at 113.50 reached. Sell although below 112.50. Cover above 114.50 resistance. Below 112.50 short-term arrow will change to DOWN. Support: 113.10, 112.90*, 112.75, 112.60*, 112.50, 112.20, 111.80, 111.50 112.0 111.5 111.0 200 100 0 -100 ? 5 2004 12 20 26 2 February -200 02.02.2004 | International Chart Pack | Credit Suisse Private Banking 11 German Bund March 2004 future (FGBLc1) W eekly chart Daily chart 121 120 119 118 117 116 115 114 113 112 111 110 109 108 107 106 105 104 1000 ì è 116.5 116.0 115.5 115.0 114.5 114.0 113.5 113.0 112.5 112.0 111.5 111.0 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 500 0 2002 2003 2004 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004 Feb Mar Hourly chart Resistance: 114.10*, 114.30*, 114.55**, 114.80/90, 115.15, 115.60* Sell again if a rebound should happen and below 113.30. Short-term downgrade to arrow DOWN if 112.80 fails to hold. BUY 115.0 114.5 114.0 113.5 SELL 113.0 112.5 112.0 111.5 Support: 113.50, 113.35*, 113.15*, 112.95, 112.50, 112.35 100 50 0 -50 -100 8 December 15 22 29 5 2004 12 19 26 1 February 02.02.2004 | International Chart Pack | Credit Suisse Private Banking 12 Gold spot (XAU=) W eekly chart Daily chart ì 400 î 350 300 435 430 425 420 415 410 405 400 395 390 385 380 375 370 365 360 355 350 345 1000 500 0 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 -500 2002 2003 2004 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004 Feb Mar Hourly chart Resistance: 404/5, 409, 413, 415**, 417/18*, 421*, 425*, 429/31 As long as 417 is not broken shortterm trends are bearish. Medium-term downgrade to FLAT if 399 breaks. BUY 430 425 420 415 410 405 400 Support: 398*, 395, 389*, 383, 381, 379, 375* SELL 395 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 5 2004 12 19 26 2 February 02.02.2004 | International Chart Pack | Credit Suisse Private Banking 13 Other Commodities W eekly chart Daily chart Silver 6.5 Daily chart Daily chart Platinum 850 6.0 800 5.5 750 5.0 700 650 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 -500 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004 Feb Mar 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004 Feb Mar Hourly chart Daily chart Palladium 250 245 240 235 230 225 220 215 210 205 200 195 190 185 180 175 170 165 3000 2000 1000 0 Daily chart Crude oil 36 35 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 2000 1500 1000 500 0 -500 -1000 Resistance 223 broken. On the way to reache 255 or even 310. Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004 Feb Mar Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004 Feb Mar 02.02.2004 | International Chart Pack | Credit Suisse Private Banking 14 Euro / US dollar (EUR=) W eekly chart Daily chart 1.30 1.25 1.20 1.15 1.10 1.05 1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85 3000 2000 1000 0 2002 2003 2004 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004 Feb Mar 1000 500 0 -500 1.10 1.15 1.20 1.25 è è 1.30 Hourly chart Resistance: 1.2520, 1.2570**, 1.2620*, 1.2670, 1.2750, 1.2820, 1.2950* Normally a descending triangle is breaking to the downside. Sell if 1.2320 breaks. Shortterm downgrade to DOWN if 1.2320 breaks. BUY 1.290 1.285 1.280 1.275 1.270 1.265 1.260 1.255 1.250 1.245 1.240 1.235 Support: 1.2360/50, 1.2320**, 1.2190, 1.2140** SELL 1.230 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 ? 12 19 26 2 February 02.02.2004 | International Chart Pack | Credit Suisse Private Banking 15 US dollar / Swiss franc (CHF=) W eekly chart Daily chart è 1.70 1.65 1.60 1.55 1.50 1.45 1.40 1.35 1.30 è 1.35 1.30 1.25 1.25 1.20 1.20 500 0 -500 -1000 -1500 -2000 0 -500 500 ? 2002 2003 2004 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004 Feb -1000 Mar Hourly chart Resistance: 1.2660, 1.2730, 1.2790**, 1.2870, 1.2970** BUY BUY 1.275 1.270 1.265 1.260 1.255 1.250 1.245 1.240 1.235 1.230 1.225 1.220 1.215 Still within the ascending triangle. If 1.2660 and 1.2730 can be surpassed a new upleg will start. Sell only below 1.2350. SELL Support: 1.25, 1.2450, 1.24, 1.2360, 1.2290, 1.2270*, 1.2180 1.210 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 12 19 26 2 February 02.02.2004 | International Chart Pack | Credit Suisse Private Banking 16 Other Currencies W eekly chart Daily chart GBP/CHF 2.30 2.29 2.28 2.27 2.26 2.25 2.24 2.23 2.22 2.21 2.20 2.19 2.18 2.17 500 Daily chart Daily chart USD/JPY 120 119 118 117 116 115 114 113 112 111 110 109 108 107 106 105 0 0 -500 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004 Feb Mar Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004 Feb Mar Hourly chart Daily chart GBP/USD 1.80 1.75 1.70 1.65 1.60 1.55 1000 500 0 Daily chart EUR/CHF 1.57 1.56 1.55 1.54 1.53 1.52 1.51 200 100 0 -100 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004 Feb Mar Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004 Feb Mar 02.02.2004 | International Chart Pack | Credit Suisse Private Banking 17 Imprint W eekly chart Daily chart Publisher Rolf Bertschi · Director Head of Technical Research Tel. 333 24 05 E-Mail rolf.bertschi@credit-suisse.com Technical Research Beat Grunder · Assistant Vice President Technical Research - Swiss equities, Asian equities Tel. 333 53 58 E-Mail beat.grunder@credit-suisse.com Sigisbert Koch Technical Research - European equities Tel. 333 94 64 E-Mail sigisbert.koch@credit-suisse.com Mensur Pocinci Assistant Vice President Technical Research - US equities Tel. 333 20 69 E-Mail mensur.pocinci@credit-suisse.com Information about other Research Publications Credit Suisse Research & Publications ZR Uetlibergstrasse 231 P.O. Box 300 CH-8070 Zurich E-Mail research.publications@credit-suisse.com Internet www.credit-suisse.com/techresearch Intranet (for employees only) http://my.csintra.net/techresearch Hourly chart Charts in this report are from MetaStock from Equis International and from Datastream. Indicators are by Credit Suisse Private Banking. This document was produced by and the opinions expressed are those of CREDIT SUISSE as of the date of writing and are subject to change. It has been prepared solely for information purposes and for the use of the recipient. It does not constitute an offer or an invitation by or on behalf of CREDIT SUISSE to any person to buy or sell any security. Any reference to past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The information and analysis contained in this publication have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable but CREDIT SUISSE does not make any representation as to their accuracy or completeness and does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use hereof. The issuer of the securities referred herein or a CREDIT SUISSE GROUP company may have acted upon the information and analysis contained in this publication before being made available to clients of CREDIT SUISSE. A CREDIT SUISSE GROUP company may, to the extent permitted by law, participate or invest in other financing transactions with the issuer of the securities referred herein, perform services or solicit business from such issuers, and/or have a position or effect transactions in the securities or options thereof. Neither this document nor any copy thereof may be sent to or taken into the United States or distributed in the United States or to a US person, in certain other jurisdictions the distribution may be restricted by local law or regulation. This document may not be reproduced either in whole, or in part, without the written permission of CREDIT SUISSE. © 2004, CREDIT SUISSE 02.02.2004 | International Chart Pack | Credit Suisse Private Banking 18 ...
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International_nbsp_Chart_nbsp_Pack - W eekly chart Daily...

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