Another_Triangle_in_Treasuries - Another Triangle in...

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Another Triangle in Treasuries 10/10/02 07:47:47 AM PST by David Penn A breakout from a symmetrical triangle takes the 10-year Treasury into an ascending triangle. Security: TYZ2, TYZ02 Position: N/A Morgan Stanley chief economist Stephen Roach recently wrote a piece called "Don't Give up on Treasuries." His point, reached without any observable technical analysis clues, was that those who believed that the amazing rally in U.S. government bonds was coming to an end are being premature. His focus was both on the yield end (Roach believes the economy is on the verge of deflation) as well as on the price end (heavy buyers of Treasuries and money market funds that own Treasuries). Roach is among those who've referred to the ongoing rally in Treasuries a "melt-up." However, there is ample technical support for a continued rally in Treasuries. Most recently, I noted a symmetrical triangle in the 10-year Treasury note ("The Triangle in Treasuries", Traders.com Advantage, 9/3/02) that looked to send the September T-note (TYU2) from just
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