AM1.567 - Survival Probabilities (section 1.5)...

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Unformatted text preview: Survival Probabilities (section 1.5) Notation/Definitions ( x ) = an individual who is currently age x p x = prob. ( x ) will survive at least one more year n p x = prob. ( x ) will survive at least n more years (i.e. survive to at least age x+n ) q x = prob. ( x ) will die within one year (i.e. die before reaching age x +1) n q x = prob. ( x ) will die within the next n-years (i.e. die before reaching age x+n ) We know: d x = ⇒ q x = ⇒ p x = 1 - q x = n q x = ⇒ n p x = 1 - n q x = In Summary Other Useful Probabilities 1. m |q x = prob. ( x ) survives m-years but dies within the following year (i.e. dies between age x+m and x+m +1) 2. m | n q x = prob. ( x ) survives m-years but dies within the following n- years (i.e. dies between age x+m and x+m+n ) Example 1.5.1 Using the 2001 CSO table, determine the following probabilities: (a) (25) survives at least 30 more years (b) (30) dies between age 50 and 51 (c) (25) dies between age 50 and 60 (d) (55) dies within 10 years (e) (25) dies between age 55 and 65 Solution to 1.5.1 Other Useful Relationships...
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This note was uploaded on 04/14/2010 for the course ACSCI 2053 taught by Professor Kopp during the Spring '09 term at UWO.

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AM1.567 - Survival Probabilities (section 1.5)...

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