HW2_Sol - 62.25 December 240.25 249.00 312 -71.75 -63.00...

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*** Do Not Circulate *** HW # 2 Solutions 2.3 a) Time Series b) Regression or Causal Model c) Delphi Method 2.12 a) and b) Forecast Period Actual e t (86 + 75)/2 = 80.5 3 72 +8.5 (75 + 72)/2 = 73.5 4 83 -9.5 etc 77.5 5 132 -54.5 107.5 6 65 42.5 98.5 7 110 -11.5 87.5 8 90 -2.5 100.0 9 67 +33.0 78.5 10 92 -13.5 79.5 11 98 -18.5 95.0 12 73 +22.0 c) MAD = (216)/10 = 21.6 MSE = (7175)/10 = 717.5 MAPE = 100 = 25.61 2- 1
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*** Do Not Circulate *** 2.18 (including 2.17 and 2.19) One-step-ahead Two-step-ahead Month Forecast Forecast Demand e 1 e 2 July 205.50 149.75 223 -17.50 -73.25 August 225.25 205.50 286 -60.75 -80.50 September 241.50 225.25 212 29.50 13.25 October 250.25 241.50 275 -24.75 -33.50 November 249.00 250.25 188 61.00
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Unformatted text preview: 62.25 December 240.25 249.00 312 -71.75 -63.00 MAD = 44.2 54.3 The one step ahead forecasts gave better results (and should have according to the theory). 2.24 a) Week MA(3) Forecast 4 17.67 5 20.33 6 28.67 7 22.67 8 21.67 b) Week ES(.15 ) Demand MA(3 ) |err | |err| 4 17.67 22 17.67 4.33 4.33 5 18.32 34 20.33 15.68 13.67 6 20.67 12 28.67 8.67 16.67 7 19.37 19 22.67 0.37 3.67 8 19.32 23 21.67 3.68 1.33 6.547540 7.934 MAD-ES MAD-MA c) 2 *** Do Not Circulate *** Based on these results, ES(.15) had a lower MAD over the five weeks d) It is the same as the exponential smoothing forecast made in week 6 for the demand in week 7, which is 19.37 from part c). 2-3...
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This note was uploaded on 04/18/2010 for the course ISEN 315 taught by Professor Den during the Spring '10 term at Texas A&M University, Corpus Christi.

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HW2_Sol - 62.25 December 240.25 249.00 312 -71.75 -63.00...

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