Chapt 16 - Forecasting 2. a. Time-Series Value 17 21 19 23...

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Forecasting 2. a. Week Time-Series Value 4-Week Moving Average Forecast (Error) 2 5-Week Moving Average Forecast (Error) 2 1 17 2 21 3 19 4 23 5 18 20.00 4.00 6 16 20.25 18.06 19.60 12.96 7 20 19.00 1.00 19.40 0.36 8 18 19.25 1.56 19.20 1.44 9 22 18.00 16.00 19.00 9.00 10 20 19.00 1.00 18.80 1.44 11 15 20.00 25.00 19.20 17.64 12 22 18.75 10.56 19.00 9.00 77.18 51.84 b. MSE(4-Week) = 77.18 / 8 = 9.65 MSE(5-Week) = 51.84 / 7 = 7.41 c. For the limited data provided, the 5-week moving average provides the smallest MSE. 5. a. Month Y t 3-Month Moving Averages Forecast (Error) 2 α = 2 Forecast (Error) 2 1 80 2 82 80.00 4.00 3 84 80.40 12.96 4 83 82.00 1.00 81.12 3.53 5 83 83.00 0.00 81.50 2.25 6 84 83.33 0.45 81.80 4.84 7 85 83.33 2.79 82.24 7.62 8 84 84.00 0.00 82.79 1.46 9 82 84.33 5.43 83.03 1.06 10 83 83.67 0.45 82.83 0.03 11 84 83.00 1.00 82.86 1.30 12 83 83.00 0.00 83.09 0.01 11.12 39.06 MSE(3-Month) = 11.12 / 9 = 1.24 MSE( α = .2) = 39.06 / 11 = 3.55 Use 3-month moving averages. b. (83 + 84 + 83) / 3 = 83.3 7. a. Month Time-Series Value 3-Month Moving Average Forecast α = .2 Forecast
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Chapter 16 (Error) 2 (Error) 2 1 240 2 350 240.00 12100.00 3 230 262.00 1024.00 4 260 273.33
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This note was uploaded on 04/20/2010 for the course IE ie200 taught by Professor . during the Spring '10 term at 카이스트, 한국과학기술원.

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Chapt 16 - Forecasting 2. a. Time-Series Value 17 21 19 23...

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