Finance Global Economy - The Global Economy - Macro, FINA...

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The Global Economy - Macro, FINA Problem Set #2 Analytical Questions 1.- Separate Trend from Cycle for the US a) Obtain the numbers for the real US GDP from 1990 to 2008. b) Separate the trend GDP from the cyclical part of it by obtaining the average rate of growth, projecting what GDP would have been every year if following the trend, and subtracting actual GDP from trend GDP. c) Separate the trend GDP growth from the cyclical part of it by obtaining the average rate of growth, and subtracting the trend growth rates from the actual growth rates. a) Real GDP, in billion 2005 dollars:
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1990 8,033.9 1991 8,015.1 1992 8,287.1 1993 8,523.4 1994 8,870.7 1995 9,093.7 1996 9,433.9 1997 9,854.3 1998 10,283.5 1999 10,779.8 2000 11,226.0 2001 11,347.2 2002 11,553.0 2003 11,840.7 2004 12,263.8 2005 12,638.4 2006 12,976.2 2007 13,254.1 2008 13,312.2
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b) Total gross growth = 13,321.2/8,033.9 = 1.65, net growth = 65% Geometric average of annual gross growth rate = (1.65)^ 1/18 = 1.028 or a net growth rate of 2.8% Actual Y Trend Y Difference 1990 8,033.9 8,033.9 0.0 1991 8,015.1 8262.4921 247.4 1992 8,287.1 8497.5884 210.5 1993 8,523.4 8739.374 216.0 1994 8,870.7 8988.0392 117.3 1995 9,093.7 9243.7798 150.1 1996 9,433.9 9506.7971 72.9 1997 9,854.3 9777.2982 -77.0 1998 10,283.5 10055.496 -228.0 1999 10,779.8 10341.609 -438.2 2000 11,226.0 10635.864 -590.1 2001 11,347.2 10938.491 -408.7 2002 11,553.0 11249.728 -303.3 2003 11,840.7 11569.822 -270.9 2004 12,263.8 11899.023 -364.8 2005 12,638.4 12237.591 -400.8 2006 12,976.2 12585.792 -390.4 2007 13,254.1 12943.902 -310.2 2008 13,312.2 13312.2 0.0 c) Actual Y Actual Growth Trend Growth Difference 1990 8,033.9 1991 8,015.1 -0.23% 2.84% -3.07% 1992 8,287.1 3.39% 2.84% 0.55% 1993 8,523.4 2.85% 2.84% 0.01%
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1994 8,870.7 4.07% 2.84% 1.23% 1995 9,093.7 2.51% 2.84% -0.33% 1996 9,433.9 3.74% 2.84% 0.90% 1997 9,854.3 4.46% 2.84% 1.62% 1998 10,283.5 4.36% 2.84% 1.52% 1999 10,779.8 4.83% 2.84% 1.99% 2000 11,226.0 4.14% 2.84% 1.30% 2001 11,347.2 1.08% 2.84% -1.76% 2002 11,553.0 1.81% 2.84% -1.03% 2003 11,840.7 2.49% 2.84% -0.35% 2004 12,263.8 3.57% 2.84% 0.73% 2005 12,638.4 3.05% 2.84% 0.21% 2006 12,976.2
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Finance Global Economy - The Global Economy - Macro, FINA...

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