97ffx - ADM 2303 Final Examination - 1 - December 8, 1997...

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Unformatted text preview: ADM 2303 Final Examination - 1 - December 8, 1997 University of Ottawa Faculty of Administration ADM 2303: STATISTICS FOR MANAGEMENT I FINAL EXAMINATION December 8, 1997 1900-2200 NAME: S.N. Section: Time: 3 hours Total marks: 56 ALL ANSWERS (INCLUDING BRIEF EXPLANATIONS) GO ON THE ANSWER SHEET. THE EXAM QUESTION SHEETS WILL NOT BE MARKED, though space is provided here for your rough work. The question sheets must be deposited in the box provided. NOTE THAT THERE ARE MARKS FOR EXPLAINING YOUR ANSWERS, SO MAKE SURE YOU INCLUDE BRIEF EXPLANATIONS ON THE ANSWER SHEET. THERE ARE MARKS FOR IDENTIFYING PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS. Calculators, 1 sheet of notes, and approved statistical tables permitted (MBB or signed by J C Nash). You do not need to interpolate, but take the nearest table value. Q 1. Necrotizing fasciitis (NF == flesh eating disease) is a result of an infection by a type of bacteria that is quite common. A medical researcher looking into the disease considers a city of 265,000 people. It is believed that 20% actually carry the microbe responsible for NF, but only 0.002% will ever develop any necrotic symptoms in any given year. a) [ 3 ] What is the probability no cases of NF are observed in the city in the year? b) [ 3 ] What is the probability 3 cases or more are observed in a given year? The researcher tests 10 people for the microbe in a pilot study of a simple saliva test protocol. c) [ 3 ] What is the probability he finds nobody infected?. d) [ 3 ] What is the probability he finds 4 people infected? e) [ 5 ] The researcher, satisfied that the saliva test works OK, tests 245 people for the microbe. What is the probability more than 60 are infected? f) [ 4 ] NF has a high morbidity rate: on average 1 in 3 persons with it die. The researcher starts using his test to allow doctors treating patients with NF to know if the microbe is present. Of 12 NF patients in the last 2 years, only 4 got the test, and none of them died, whereas 3 of the untested patients died. What is the probability that this situation would arise even if the test is really NOT helpful to the doctors. Document how you do your calculation. ADM 2303 Final Examination - 2 - December 8, 1997 Q 2. CleanUp is a specialty compound to treat farm waste-water that TidyFarm Co. is planning to market in response to recent complaints about polluted creeks and rivers downstream of livestock farms. The goal is to put 150 mg. of a special cleaning compound per litre of waste-water. The process of adding the compound is difficult, however, and we want to keep this concentration quite close to the specification. In fact, we regard it as unfortunate if we get less than 149 mg. per litre of the compound into the waste-water. Clearly putting excess of the compound in the water is costly, so we will specify that the standard deviation of compound concentration should be 1 mg....
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This note was uploaded on 04/22/2010 for the course MANAGEMENT ADM 2303 taught by Professor Phansalker during the Spring '00 term at University of Ottawa.

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97ffx - ADM 2303 Final Examination - 1 - December 8, 1997...

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