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Bust Summaries - I leaned towards the GFS since it was...

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Verification: Low for 00Z to 12Z: 56 (0% POP, 0 P-CAT) High for 12Z to 00Z: 60 (100% POP, 1 P-CAT) Greg Pollak Albany Weather Forecasting Forecast Forecast made on Friday, November 7, 2008 for 12Z to 00Z November 8, 2008 Forecast: Low for 00Z to 12Z: 51 (10% POP, 0 P-CAT) High for 12Z to 00Z: 62 (100% POP, 3 P-CAT) I made this forecast thinking sky cover in the early part of the overnight period would be fair to partly cloudy. A cold front was just out to our west around Indiana and Ohio; the moisture to the system didn’t seem too pronounced on radar. A moderate trough looked like it would move through our area by about 12Z on Saturday morning. Upstream of that trough axis was the most favorable place for upper- level divergence. Using linear extrapolation, clouds and rain would move in to the region by 18Z on Saturday. The GFS had broken cloud cover starting around 12Z, with rain moving in by around 15Z. The NAM was earlier with the precipitation, moving rain into the area by 12Z or 13Z.
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Unformatted text preview: I leaned towards the GFS since it was doing better in terms of timing of storm systems. With clearer skies in the earlier part of the night, I thought temperatures had room to drop before the thick cloud cover had time to move in. The daytime period was guaranteed to have verified rain. With the trough axis being slightly negatively tilted, that would allow more moisture into the area from the Gulf of Mexico. Things did not turn out as I had hoped. Cloud cover rolled into the region by 04Z or 05Z giving us absolutely no time for the lower troposphere to cool. The temperature held steady at 56-58 degrees during the overnight, and did not move much at all during the daytime period with a cold front moving through the area at 17Z. Moisture associated with the storm system ended up to be much less than what I actually thought, the rain showers tended to be more scattered in nature. With flow more southerly than southeasterly, Atlantic moisture was not as pronounced....
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