Bust Summary #2

Bust Summary #2 - anything This made me think that if it...

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ification: h for 12Z to 00Z: 33 (100% POP .02”) Albany Weather Forecasting Forecast Forecast made for 12Z to 00Z November 17, 2008 Forecast: High for 12Z to 00Z: 37 (0% POP) The biggest blunder in this forecast was the 100 error points I received for the .02” that fell during the day on Tuesday. I made the forecast looking at historical weather data during this time of the year. I saw lake effect snow affects the Albany region rarely. Looking at the GFS and NAM, they had an extremely minute POP for the daytime period. They had weaker 850-mb winds with a more southwesterly direction component to them. At 00Z Monday Night, a trough was digging in the east with WSW winds affecting the area. Cities to the west of Albany were in the National Weather Service’s discussion of having a slight chance of lake-effect snow, with the city of Albany receiving barely
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Unformatted text preview: anything. This made me think that if it actually does snow at Albany airport, it would only trace. The fetch off the lake would have to be at its greatest during the day Tuesday with the strong 850-mb winds lining up perfectly from the west to have Albany receive any form of snow. Unfortunately, all these components fell into place on Tuesday. The large-scale synoptic pattern featured a trough over the east with the polar jet bringing strong upper-level winds to the region. 850-mb winds came perfectly off the lake with speeds around 30 knots during the day. It started to trace at the beginning of the period, but at around 17Z it verified. The lower tropospheric subsidence during the day combined with the relatively strong upper-level winds created a lower high temperature than what MOS had anticipated....
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