Bust Summary #3

Bust Summary #3 - amounts of around 0.15 inches NAM had...

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cation: or 12Z to 00Z: 63 (100% POP, 4 P-CAT) Albany Weather Forecasting Forecast Forecast made on Tuesday, October 14, 2008 for 12Z to 00Z October 16, 2008 Forecast: High for 12Z to 00Z: 60 (80% POP, 2 P-CAT) I made this forecast thinking that the bulk of the rain would have mainly to our north leaving us with a showery day with temperatures being held down to the thick cloud cover. Looking at the upper- level charts on the GFS model on the 14 th I saw a jet streak located over Colorado. With an abundance of moisture did not look to be in place for this period. The low pressure system seemed to be moving relatively quickly compared to what actually occurred when it moved into the northeast. I thought as it progressed eastward, the left exit region would be right over the northeast by 12Z on the 16 th . All of the models were in agreement with this except the NAM, which brought in precipitation at around 06Z. The National Weather Service had rain amounts on the order of tenth to a quarter inch of rain, GFS had
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Unformatted text preview: amounts of around 0.15 inches, NAM had around 0.20 inches, and the NGM had 0.40 inches. I went more with the GFS since they have been the best with precipitation amounts throughout the contest. They all had rain amounts greatest southwest of the Albany region. It turns out that the NGM came the closest out of all the models. About a third of an inch of rain actually fell in Albany. The region for favored upper-level divergence came closer to the area with the jet streak right over Ohio at 12Z. The trough digging in right behind the cold front was much stronger than I expected; this created more of a southerly flow in the area forcing temperatures to rise a few degrees than what was forecasted. We were hovering right around the warm front at 12Z. We started the day just north of the warm front, but by around 18Z Albany got into the warm sector therefore rising the temperature to 63 degrees for a daytime high....
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