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Bust Summary #4 - Temperatures across the board with all...

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Verification: Low for 00Z to 12Z: 34 (100% POP, 1 P-CAT) Greg Pollak Albany Weather Forecasting Forecast Forecast made on Tuesday, October 28, 2008 for 00Z to 12Z October 29, 2008 Forecast: Low for 00Z to 12Z: 30 (100% POP, 4 P-CAT) This forecast was made with the assumption that the low pressure system that was affecting the area would move much slower than it actually did. At 12Z on the 28 th low pressure (991 mb) was off the coast of New Jersey bringing heavy rain to the Albany area. With the trough axis deep into the south around Georgia and South Carolina, a plume of moisture was able to come right into New England and upstate New York off the Atlantic Ocean. The left exit region of the jet streak off to the west in western Pennsylvania was directly over the Albany area. All the models had the storm lagging and moving slowly up the coast with amounts during the period on the order of at least 0.35 inches of rain.
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Unformatted text preview: Temperatures across the board with all the models were at the very most at 32 degrees with the NGM at 28. With relatively cold air coming into place they seemed to on par with the temperatures. A combination of the sub-freezing temperatures and precipitation over the area, I expected there to be at least a coating of snow on the ground in the morning. Unfortunately, the low pressure system lifted into central Quebec leaving us with dryer conditions for the overnight period. The whole timing of the storm was off in the forecast. Snow fell earlier in the afternoon with precipitation ending right after 00Z. With the storm system moving out rather quickly and keeping the low pressure far to our north, 850-mb west winds set up during the overnight instead of the northwesterly winds that I anticipated. In addition, cloud cover prevailed for most of the night keeping temperatures up....
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