Bust Summary #5

Bust Summary #5 - Ver ification: Greg Pollak L ow for 00Z t...

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Unformatted text preview: Ver ification: Greg Pollak L ow for 00Z t o 12Z: 23 (0% POP, 0 P-CAT) Albany Weather Forecasting Forecast H igh for 12Z t o 00Z: 53 (0% POP, 0 P-CAT) Forecast made on Thursday, October 23, 2008 for 12Z to 00Z October 24, 2008 Forecast: Low for 00Z to 12Z: 27 (0% POP, 0 P-CAT) H igh for 12Z to 00Z: 59 (0% POP, 0 P-CAT) A very large upper r idge was building into the area during the day before the fi rst forecast period. The GFS, NAM, and NGM all had pretty much had equivalent t emperatures for the daytime period. The GFS had 850-mb temperatures around -5 degrees Celcius at 18Z for Friday. Then using the 850-mb mixing rule, I got a maximum t emperature of 62 degrees. I took off three degrees for light west winds. Low temperature for the overnight period was four degrees colder than what I forecasted; this lower t emperature to start out with was a key factor in having my daytime high temperature m uch higher than what i t actually was. During the overnight period, I forecasted clear skies and calm winds with moderate radiational cooling. A huge dome of high pressure was forecasted to move in from the east bringing calm winds to the area. With clear skies overnight, I made the assumption temperatures would r ise fairly quickly into the upper 50’s by the afternoon. T he night became extremely cold rather quickly. Clear skies and calm winds took over the area and strong radiational cooling took place. The coldest temperatures occurred a t around 08Z and temperatures rose to 27 degrees by 12Z. Upper-level Cir rus clouds formed during the day on Friday adding to the suppressant of the high temperature. The lower t roposphere was not able to mix out, therefore holding the temperature down. ...
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Bust Summary #5 - Ver ification: Greg Pollak L ow for 00Z t...

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