Public Opinion 2 - 1/25/2010 How is public opinion...

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1/25/2010 1 How is public opinion measured? Issues in measuring public opinion 1. The media - Tangible, neutral facts 2. Scholars - To understand political attitudes and behavior 3. Candidates -Craft message - Evaluate campaign effectiveness 1. Identify the population 2. Draw a sample 3. Design a questionnaire 4. Gather the data 5. Analyze the data
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1/25/2010 2 1. Identify the population What is your universe of interest? Some choices -All voting age population? -Registered voters? -Likely voters? 2. Draw a sample Randomness is the key word. - Simple random sample : Every person in the population has the same chance of being selected. - Representative sample : Sample matches the proportion of different groups in society (gender, race, income, education, etc.) Sampling error “… as a result of relying on a representative, but small, sample of the larger population. Margin of error: +/- 3 (at 95% confidence level) :A ME of +/- 3% means that we are 95% sure that the true number ranges from +/- 3 pts of the published estimate. A mathematical reality
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1/25/2010 3 Q. I'm going to read you the names of a few people who might run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012. For each one, please tell me whether you would be very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not likely at all to support them if they decided to run for the Republican nomination four years from now. CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll.
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Public Opinion 2 - 1/25/2010 How is public opinion...

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