35-probability&decisions

35-probability&decisions

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Unformatted text preview: ikely? (1)AwordwithRasthefirstle^er (2)AwordwithRasthethirdle^er 70%choose(1) Actuallymorecommon Availabilityheuris#c Thefrequencyofaneventisjudgedbyhoweasyitisto imagineorrecallinstances (Tversky&Kahneman,1973) Availability Approx.4,000,000annualdeaths Approx.14,000totaldeaths Anchoringandadjustment Spinawheelwithnumbers1100 IsthenumberofAfricanna+onsintheUN higherorlowerthanthatnumber? Nowes+matethetotalnumberofAfrican na+onsinUN Numberspun 10 65 Meanes#mate 25 45 (Tversky&Kahneman,1974) Anchoringandadjustment Spinawheelwithnumbers1100 IsthenumberofAfricanna+onsintheUN higherorlowerthanthatnumber? Nowes+matethetotalnumberofAfrican na+onsinUN Anchoringandadjustmentheuris#c Unknownquan++esarees+matedbystar+ngwithan ini+alvalueandadjus+ngasneeded (Tversky&Kahneman,1974) Heuris+csandbiases Peopleuseheuris+cstomakeprobability judgments Representa+veness Availability Anchoringandadjustment Pre^ygoodmostofthe+mebutleadto systema+cbiasesinsomeprobabilis+c reasoningproblems Fromreasoningtodecisions Expectedvalue E = P(x i )U(x i ) = Probability Value Heuris+csleadto errors Howareweat es+ma+ngvalue? Es+ma...
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This note was uploaded on 04/29/2010 for the course PSYCH 85 211 taught by Professor Theissen during the Spring '10 term at Carnegie Mellon.

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